MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3bd6be91e6a60f32f964219cdae2a5eb49db9bc1da06a6df52ad11391f06aab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 47c | 4,424$2,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,068.73 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 54c | 2,151$1,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.73 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 1,370$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.26 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Over | 62c | 1,275$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.72 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Under | 54c | 1,010$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.5 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…1f1ebacked Under | 39c | 901.47$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.95 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 853.69$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.24 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 44c | 769.25$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.47 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 28c | 661.45$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.25 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Under | 55c | 442.27$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.02 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b39…7fbcbacked Under | 50c | 405.46$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.73 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 45c | 359.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 276.2$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 29c | 270.59$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.47 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 55c | 223.79$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.71 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 58c | 165.33$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.98 | 529 | 55.6%294 W · 235 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 41c | 149.3$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Over | 28c | 140.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -6.8wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 59c | 133$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.47 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 48c | 132.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 52c | 115.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.21 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 47c | 112.27$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Under | 55c | 96.43$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 20c | 87.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 54c | 87.05$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 44c | 86.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Over | 59c | 78.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 59c | 70.05$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 53c | 63.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under | 39c | 61.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 73c | 60.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked Over | 47c | 56.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -9.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -33%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 47c | 56.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 55c | 49.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 47c | 49.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 63c | 48.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 52c | 46.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 53c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked Over | 45c | 41.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 39c | 39.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 44c | 37.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 46c | 36.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…9ce7backed Over | 45c | 36.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 39c | 35.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 61c | 35.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 54c | 33.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 66c | 28.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 57c | 28.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 57c | 27.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 46c | 27.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Under | 57c | 19.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. New York YankeesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.