Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Execration (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5b1ad1b0edbb6003a6a4df6a2ff786429a34722422fce538a03555959f40458
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Execration
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Natus Vincere | 76c | 3,000$2,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.54 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…d5b8backed Execration | 9c | 3,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Execration | 7c | 2,986$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.72 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Execration | 14c | 2,021$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.19 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Execration | 25c | 1,612$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.96 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Execration | 22c | 1,549$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.32 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…156fbacked Execration | 29c | 775.96$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.23 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Natus Vincere | 74c | 542.46$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.04 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Execration | 9c | 442.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Execration | 21c | 419.3$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.08 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked Natus Vincere | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…91a1backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde0b…df4cbacked Natus Vincere | 75c | 356.99$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Execration | 25c | 354.63$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.11 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe34e…c0f4backed Execration | 8c | 318.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f03…7551backed Execration | 36c | 306$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.1 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Natus Vincere | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…5d8ebacked Natus Vincere | 75c | 253.33$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Execration | 8c | 207.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 205.24$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed Execration | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7791…af80backed Execration | 26c | 192$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…dc3dbacked Natus Vincere | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Natus Vincere | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 377 | 54.9%207 W · 170 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a1…8497backed Execration | 26c | 129$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…1cf9backed Execration | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…fd20backed Execration | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33a8…2a71backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 102.67$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Execration | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…3b7dbacked Natus Vincere | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…f48dbacked Natus Vincere | 71c | 99.71$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2074…61d9backed Execration | 26c | 99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Execration | 12c | 91.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13ea…9a8cbacked Execration | 26c | 86.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…30a1backed Execration | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +8.5wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Execration | 18c | 78.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | -12.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Natus Vincere | 59c | 68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 500 | 32.2%161 W · 339 L | -47.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x637b…7410backed Execration | 23c | 61.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…81c5backed Natus Vincere | 79c | 56.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Execration | 26c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Natus Vincere | 76c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 30.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 24.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +8.3wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0030…04e9backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 19.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 341 | 52.2%178 W · 163 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.