Fifa International · resolved market
Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ shots
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5dd7eab1b2b28017e801b96d4d49b2f7d7824de3e25a0daf3c6f1f45d8e52b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf531…121cbacked Yes | 44c | 1,400$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.99 | 179 | 44.1%79 W · 100 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 30c | 1,081$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.91 | 210 | 51%107 W · 103 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 69c | 608$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.52 | 373 | 50.1%187 W · 186 L | +45.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 54c | 563.4$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.24 | 165 | 64.2%106 W · 59 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b2…8c41backed No | 56c | 343.21$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.08 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed No | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 170 | 54.7%93 W · 77 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 179 | 62.6%112 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 64c | 168.59$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.13 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaca…49e6backed Yes | 45c | 112.16$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…be69backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdf…8116backed Yes | 46c | 64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94ec…1a4bbacked No | 70c | 41.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | +12.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…e36bbacked No | 70c | 36.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 785 | 59.7%469 W · 316 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…046fbacked Yes | 45c | 24.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 345 | 26.1%90 W · 255 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ shotsthis page
- Bamba Dieng: 3+ goalsNo won
- Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assistsNo won
- Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goalsNo won
- Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ shotsNo won
- Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Chérif Ndiaye: 1+ goalsNo won
- Chérif Ndiaye: 1+ shotsNo won
- Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ goalsNo won
- Chérif Ndiaye: 4+ shotsNo won
- Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ shotsNo won
- Edouard Mendy: 2+ savesNo won
- Edouard Mendy: 3+ savesNo won
- Ibrahim Mbaye: 3+ goalsNo won
- Ibrahim Mbaye: 3+ shotsNo won
- Ibrahim Mbaye: 4+ shotsNo won
- Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ assistsNo won
- Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goalsYes won
- Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ assistsNo won
- Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ goalsNo won
- Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ shotsYes won
- Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ goalsNo won
- Ismaïla Sarr: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Ismaïla Sarr: 4+ shotsYes won
- Jeremy Doku: 1+ assistsNo won
- Jeremy Doku: 1+ goalsNo won
- Jeremy Doku: 2+ assistsNo won
- Jeremy Doku: 2+ goalsNo won
- Jeremy Doku: 2+ shotsNo won
- Jeremy Doku: 3+ shotsNo won
- Jeremy Doku: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assistsNo won
- Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goalsNo won
- Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shotsYes won
- Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assistsNo won
- Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goalsNo won
- Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shotsYes won
- Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shotsNo won
- Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shotsNo won
- Leandro Trossard: 1+ assistsYes won
- Leandro Trossard: 1+ goalsNo won
- Leandro Trossard: 2+ assistsNo won
- Leandro Trossard: 2+ goalsNo won
- Leandro Trossard: 2+ shotsNo won
- Leandro Trossard: 3+ shotsNo won
- Leandro Trossard: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ goalsNo won
- Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goalsNo won
- Nicolas Jackson: 2+ goalsNo won
- Nicolas Jackson: 3+ goalsNo won
- Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goalsYes won
- Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goalsNo won
- Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goalsNo won
- Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shotsNo won
- Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Sadio Mané: 1+ assistsNo won
- Sadio Mané: 1+ goalsNo won
- Sadio Mané: 1+ shotsYes won
- Sadio Mané: 2+ assistsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.