Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb60709763cdca132a2273b50b11d37b4a760aa5349fa7eb7c5bc3fd0c37006c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fennelof Insomnia, Fennel
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Fennel | 61c | 745.67$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.96 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Insomnia | 46c | 666.33$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.49 | 1,276 | 32.1%409 W · 867 L | -67.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed Insomnia | 40c | 612.52$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.93 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…d72abacked Fennel | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 306 | 52.3%160 W · 146 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Fennel | 71c | 294.23$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.55 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked Insomnia | 31c | 274.2$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Fennel | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…31d6backed Fennel | 72c | 205.92$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.66 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0758…9532backed Insomnia | 27c | 200.06$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Insomnia | 45c | 185.22$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 962 | 45.1%434 W · 528 L | -18.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8b…7a07backed Fennel | 54c | 155.18$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.75 | 106 | 64.2%68 W · 38 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +16%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6a…fdbbbacked Fennel | 72c | 139.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x630b…34ffbacked Fennel | 73c | 119.53$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 55cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Insomnia | 30c | 113.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 421 | 40.4%170 W · 251 L | -26.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…749bbacked Fennel | 61c | 112.96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 106 | 28.3%30 W · 76 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Fennel | 57c | 109.28$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Insomnia | 33c | 106.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 700 | 43.7%306 W · 394 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Insomnia | 34c | 103.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 746 | 42.8%319 W · 427 L | -27.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Insomnia | 41c | 100.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 848 | 38.2%324 W · 524 L | -50.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Insomnia | 31c | 97.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 240 | 32.1%77 W · 163 L | -18.7wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe0…fb5bbacked Fennel | 47c | 84.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 349 | 54.7%191 W · 158 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Fennel | 66c | 83.25$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 1,309 | 43.8%573 W · 736 L | -44.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…d7dbbacked Insomnia | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Fennel | 62c | 73.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 777 | 44%342 W · 435 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…6f23backed Fennel | 71c | 64.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…f727backed Fennel | 60c | 61.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x330f…91b1backed Fennel | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Fennel | 67c | 40.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 181 | 48.6%88 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Fennel | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Insomnia | 30c | 36.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 571 | 51%291 W · 280 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6176…d8f2backed Fennel | 62c | 32.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Insomnia | 44c | 29.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 122 | 61.5%75 W · 47 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…6cc2backed Fennel | 68c | 26.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1e…8dadbacked Fennel | 80c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 63cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Fennel | 62c | 21.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 241 | 40.2%97 W · 144 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Fennel | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,358 | 39%530 W · 828 L | -57.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd11…67b1backed Fennel | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main StageFennel won
- Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel - Map 1 WinnerFennel won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.