Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08d329d2c2be6c666de88fc31d53efa1ef4a7a567a87f642ca6c3c02c8089efc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fennelof Insomnia, Fennel
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Insomnia | 25c | 3,297$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.24 | 287 | 43.2%124 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Insomnia | 10c | 1,279$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.15 | 1,276 | 32.1%409 W · 867 L | -67.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Fennel | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 867 | 47.5%412 W · 455 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88cb…153bbacked Insomnia | 32c | 999.99$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4f…9b0cbacked Fennel | 79c | 665.98$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x257e…ca61backed Fennel | 60c | 585.75$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.96 | 223 | 44.4%99 W · 124 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Insomnia | 17c | 567.41$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.61 | 848 | 38.2%324 W · 524 L | -50.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Fennel | 76c | 500.1$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.02 | 254 | 53.5%136 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8494…814abacked Fennel | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -9.3wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed Fennel | 51c | 472.86$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.3 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed Fennel | 77c | 450.85$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.68 | 184 | 57.1%105 W · 79 L | +11.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Insomnia | 22c | 448.05$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 237 | 32.9%78 W · 159 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5747…7fdfbacked Fennel | 78c | 322.53$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.53 | 628 | 56.4%354 W · 274 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…b838backed Insomnia | 18c | 314.34$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…d72abacked Fennel | 75c | 297.13$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.28 | 306 | 52.3%160 W · 146 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Insomnia | 22c | 262.11$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 779 | 29.5%230 W · 549 L | -72.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab5…35d8backed Fennel | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 75cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Insomnia | 27c | 230.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.26 | 746 | 42.8%319 W · 427 L | -27.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Fennel | 80c | 206.47$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18bc…b423backed Insomnia | 36c | 204.19$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…3f9dbacked Insomnia | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb9…8d05backed Insomnia | 53c | 190$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Insomnia | 23c | 187.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 338 | 38.5%130 W · 208 L | -21.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa4…236cbacked Fennel | 76c | 179$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.96 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Insomnia | 30c | 174.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 421 | 40.4%170 W · 251 L | -26.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…cd33backed Fennel | 51c | 170.12$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.96 | 430 | 59.8%257 W · 173 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Fennel | 78c | 170$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 190 | 40%76 W · 114 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Insomnia | 25c | 168.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 700 | 43.7%306 W · 394 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Insomnia | 17c | 158.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 236 | 44.5%105 W · 131 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Insomnia | 10c | 141.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 240 | 32.1%77 W · 163 L | -18.7wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Insomnia | 22c | 135.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 907 | 33.1%300 W · 607 L | -89.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Fennel | 78c | 129.26$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Fennel | 65c | 125.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 930 | 49.4%459 W · 471 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe01f…ab4abacked Fennel | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 254 | 44.9%114 W · 140 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Fennel | 75c | 116$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Insomnia | 26c | 116$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 571 | 51%291 W · 280 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Insomnia | 17c | 110.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 962 | 45.1%434 W · 528 L | -18.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Insomnia | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 1,358 | 39%530 W · 828 L | -57.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Fennel | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea9…9248backed Fennel | 74c | 95.12$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Insomnia | 19c | 94.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 556 | 37.6%209 W · 347 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd565…d785backed Fennel | 77c | 75.05$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Insomnia | 22c | 74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 601 | 54.2%326 W · 275 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Insomnia | 14c | 73.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 777 | 44%342 W · 435 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked Fennel | 77c | 58.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 205 | 53.2%109 W · 96 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Insomnia | 22c | 54.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Fennel | 55c | 54.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Insomnia | 22c | 51.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 375 | 45.6%171 W · 204 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Insomnia | 36c | 47.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1,601 | 37.5%600 W · 1,001 L | -75.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Insomnia | 29c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…fbbbbacked Fennel | 79c | 29.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddf…7510backed Fennel | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Fennel | 55c | 23.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1,247 | 49.6%619 W · 628 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stagethis page
- Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel - Map 1 WinnerFennel won
- Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel - Map 2 WinnerFennel won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.