Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c28a01b332bbb184c365ec957271e98f2c00e1dd61794a30ea732dcf987e934
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fennelof Insomnia, Fennel
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9625…5bb7backed Fennel | 53c | 3,250$1,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,527.5 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed Insomnia | 48c | 2,655$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,266.31 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56b…342dbacked Insomnia | 59c | 1,872$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.63 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…bb53backed Insomnia | 49c | 891.76$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.44 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…fcbdbacked Fennel | 80c | 800.51$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.38 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0758…9532backed Fennel | 29c | 629.99$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.29 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…d72abacked Fennel | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 306 | 52.3%160 W · 146 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Fennel | 58c | 498.81$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.12 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb600…4440backed Insomnia | 67c | 350$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Fennel | 34c | 290.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.84 | 338 | 38.5%130 W · 208 L | -21.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Fennel | 38c | 275.47$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.03 | 1,247 | 49.6%619 W · 628 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f1…7535backed Insomnia | 18c | 274.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Insomnia | 30c | 264.48$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.57 | 962 | 45.1%434 W · 528 L | -18.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Fennel | 52c | 264$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.74 | 998 | 46%459 W · 539 L | -27.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Fennel | 50c | 257.72$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.68 | 409 | 44.3%181 W · 228 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Insomnia | 41c | 256.94$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.2 | 848 | 38.2%324 W · 524 L | -50.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Fennel | 44c | 217.9$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.6 | 700 | 43.7%306 W · 394 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Insomnia | 46c | 164.33$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.33 | 1,601 | 37.5%600 W · 1,001 L | -75.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Fennel | 40c | 144$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.88 | 777 | 44%342 W · 435 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x980a…315cbacked Insomnia | 28c | 139.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…396dbacked Insomnia | 35c | 139.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Fennel | 49c | 122.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.61 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8b…7a07backed Insomnia | 57c | 118.52$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 106 | 64.2%68 W · 38 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +16%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8557…6f88backed Fennel | 66c | 106.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Insomnia | 43c | 105.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 907 | 33.1%300 W · 607 L | -89.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Insomnia | 28c | 101.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6a…fdbbbacked Fennel | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92c…dd9abacked Insomnia | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Fennel | 30c | 85.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 421 | 40.4%170 W · 251 L | -26.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Insomnia | 31c | 82.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 240 | 32.1%77 W · 163 L | -18.7wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed Insomnia | 55c | 76.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe0…fb5bbacked Insomnia | 59c | 69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 349 | 54.7%191 W · 158 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Fennel | 42c | 65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 571 | 51%291 W · 280 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x330f…91b1backed Fennel | 59c | 60.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Fennel | 41c | 54.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 746 | 42.8%319 W · 427 L | -27.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1001…0cf1backed Insomnia | 35c | 46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…cd33backed Fennel | 67c | 40.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 430 | 59.8%257 W · 173 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Insomnia | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 666 | 50.8%338 W · 328 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Fennel | 76c | 39.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 181 | 48.6%88 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…f727backed Fennel | 79c | 37.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Insomnia | 46c | 36.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 1,358 | 39%530 W · 828 L | -57.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Insomnia | 47c | 29.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 183 | 3.3%6 W · 177 L | -73.1wins | -0.40per pick | 43cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 11-0.35 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Insomnia | 47c | 22.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 241 | 40.2%97 W · 144 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21dd…e4f5backed Insomnia | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main StageFennel won
- Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel - Map 2 WinnerFennel won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.