MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6383ab3a1fe496e7edda614bfe3e065a2c197508a1a3c7358ef637574851e4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 47c | 4,529$2,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,148.6 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed No | 52c | 1,151$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.13 | 75 | 64%48 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…0fdfbacked No | 53c | 900$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked No | 52c | 720$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.6 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed No | 54c | 555.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.67 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed No | 52c | 424.52$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.77 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 48c | 299.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b5…2ff8backed No | 53c | 283$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.01 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -7.7wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked No | 54c | 206.65$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.06 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed No | 52c | 205$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 47c | 200.49$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.88 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…7debbacked No | 53c | 180$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 47c | 170.54$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.15 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed No | 53c | 141.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…75b7backed No | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes | 50c | 72.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 193 | 56.5%109 W · 84 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…2fa8backed No | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 222 | 54.1%120 W · 102 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b39…8b50backed No | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 138 | 58.7%81 W · 57 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…bf33backed No | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked No | 52c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 263 | 15.6%41 W · 222 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…ed42backed No | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 47c | 26.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Yes | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Philliesthis page
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.