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MLB · resolved market

Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Miami Marlinsof Philadelphia Phillies, Miami Marlins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,807
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,160

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,807 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins69c13,318$9,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,153.4311,65352.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L+214.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies29c12,329$3,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,517.812,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Philadelphia Phillies51c3,614$1,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,848.2615751%80 W · 77 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Philadelphia Phillies59c2,291$1,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,351.473,13948.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L-10.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins46c1,804$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974.244,42747.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L-77.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafee…881ebacked Philadelphia Phillies54c1,804$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.245841.4%24 W · 34 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins49c1,500$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7655,56750.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L+25.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins48c1,368$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.837,07850.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L+1.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Miami Marlins48c1,100$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.521,69749.1%834 W · 863 L+3.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Miami Marlins44c1,042$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.011,90649.3%940 W · 966 L+25.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins77c1,028$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.48,68252.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L+505.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+4.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9709…52abbacked Philadelphia Phillies49c1,002$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.941952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+78.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Miami Marlins51c908$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.924,12057.6%2,375 W · 1,745 L+67.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eae…f9d1backed Miami Marlins48c834.6$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.99955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Philadelphia Phillies60c689$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.981,93944.5%862 W · 1,077 L-29.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins30c645.36$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.778,30446.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Miami Marlins20c534$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.544,44545%2,001 W · 2,444 L+87.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Philadelphia Phillies53c509.42$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.991,87852.1%978 W · 900 L+52.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ebb…2b75backed Philadelphia Phillies52c433.96$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.6610448.1%50 W · 54 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Philadelphia Phillies54c370.65$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20026352.1%137 W · 126 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Miami Marlins29c318.6$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.811,97541.3%815 W · 1,160 L-27.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies27c235.04$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.468,48447.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L+79.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Philadelphia Phillies43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10049246.1%227 W · 265 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Miami Marlins49c191$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.4158451.5%301 W · 283 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf025…48f8backed Philadelphia Phillies53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Philadelphia Phillies53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012049.2%59 W · 61 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9303…cc05backed Philadelphia Phillies53c185.58$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.361464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Philadelphia Phillies50c180$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.451,47851%754 W · 724 L-19.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b89…9f72backed Philadelphia Phillies53c150$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.511455.3%63 W · 51 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x186b…9bbabacked Philadelphia Phillies30c150$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453444.1%15 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b0f…b7aebacked Philadelphia Phillies50c139.26$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6353538.7%207 W · 328 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Miami Marlins47c138$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.1454642.5%232 W · 314 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed Miami Marlins52c134.55$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.5953357.6%307 W · 226 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x85b3…33efbacked Philadelphia Phillies53c112.72$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.749759.8%58 W · 39 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Miami Marlins50c110.02$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.013,86642.3%1,636 W · 2,230 L+4.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd60…3927backed Miami Marlins48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.175549.1%27 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd325…8c5fbacked Philadelphia Phillies34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3425260.3%152 W · 100 L+16.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed Philadelphia Phillies45c97.94$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2746444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Miami Marlins44c96.53$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.061,25844%553 W · 705 L-33.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies53c94.85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8811,10251.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L+135.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Miami Marlins48c94.72$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2587254.2%473 W · 399 L+26.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc65…2e55backed Philadelphia Phillies53c92.45$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4970%0 W · 7 L-4.0wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Miami Marlins52c90.8$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.581,26758.5%741 W · 526 L+26.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb417…437fbacked Miami Marlins48c83.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.332065%13 W · 7 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+43.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5c78…7d67backed Miami Marlins39c80$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499149.5%45 W · 46 L+5.8wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a48…9e7bbacked Miami Marlins48c78.16$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6419649.5%97 W · 99 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff4b…a799backed Philadelphia Phillies26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-28.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c1e…befebacked Philadelphia Phillies53c75.48$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4028553%151 W · 134 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Miami Marlins26c70$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.83,23151.2%1,655 W · 1,576 L+148.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x33c9…5124backed Philadelphia Phillies53c68.63$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3744149%216 W · 225 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Philadelphia Phillies37c65.36$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2447552.4%249 W · 226 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd42c…9a9ebacked Philadelphia Phillies53c63.7$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.761241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins38c57.75$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.089,89146.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L+40.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa188…62eabacked Philadelphia Phillies53c56.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3025948.3%125 W · 134 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7982…6aaabacked Miami Marlins47c52.7$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.933844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb6b…b0b9backed Philadelphia Phillies53c51.14$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick62cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Miami Marlins52c45.39$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7946258%268 W · 194 L-1.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Miami Marlins52c45.39$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7960859.2%360 W · 248 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee5f…5468backed Philadelphia Phillies52c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2889…edcfbacked Philadelphia Phillies53c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.27656.6%43 W · 33 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd355…e402backed Philadelphia Phillies38c39.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.757455.4%41 W · 33 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Miami Marlins46c36.19$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.541,97953.2%1,052 W · 927 L+45.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Miami Marlins53c35.28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.581,04958.4%613 W · 436 L+21.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Philadelphia Phillies32c34.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1160434.3%207 W · 397 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc0b…4db0backed Philadelphia Phillies53c31.83$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.875040%20 W · 30 L-6.1wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-20.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Miami Marlins47c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.92,44450.1%1,225 W · 1,219 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x840b…345fbacked Miami Marlins48c28.13$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.631020%2 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-60.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1262…056fbacked Miami Marlins47c27$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3138449%188 W · 196 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Miami Marlins71c26.9$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.81,29256.8%734 W · 558 L+31.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x49c5…3de7backed Miami Marlins48c26.85$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0542348.2%204 W · 219 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb77…fbeebacked Philadelphia Phillies53c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.255145.1%23 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Miami Marlins49c21.55$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8974752.5%392 W · 355 L+17.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Philadelphia Phillies52c20.74$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.82,15350.2%1,080 W · 1,073 L+27.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Miami Marlins75c15.88$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.942,20040.2%884 W · 1,316 L+3.7wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.