MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x148790fcc9166545228571305a4593b0437a05b3454919659fd80ef5e9267cfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Philadelphia Phillies, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 69c | 13,318$9,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,153.43 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 29c | 12,329$3,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,517.8 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 3,614$1,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,848.26 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 2,291$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.47 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins | 46c | 1,804$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.24 | 4,427 | 47.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L | -77.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafee…881ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 1,804$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.24 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765 | 5,567 | 50.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L | +25.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 48c | 1,368$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.83 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Miami Marlins | 48c | 1,100$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.52 | 1,697 | 49.1%834 W · 863 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Miami Marlins | 44c | 1,042$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.01 | 1,906 | 49.3%940 W · 966 L | +25.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 77c | 1,028$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.4 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9709…52abbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 1,002$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.94 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Miami Marlins | 51c | 908$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.92 | 4,120 | 57.6%2,375 W · 1,745 L | +67.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eae…f9d1backed Miami Marlins | 48c | 834.6$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 689$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.98 | 1,939 | 44.5%862 W · 1,077 L | -29.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 30c | 645.36$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.77 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Miami Marlins | 20c | 534$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.54 | 4,445 | 45%2,001 W · 2,444 L | +87.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 509.42$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.99 | 1,878 | 52.1%978 W · 900 L | +52.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed Philadelphia Phillies | 52c | 433.96$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.66 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 370.65$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 263 | 52.1%137 W · 126 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Miami Marlins | 29c | 318.6$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.81 | 1,975 | 41.3%815 W · 1,160 L | -27.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 27c | 235.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 8,484 | 47.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L | +79.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 492 | 46.1%227 W · 265 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Miami Marlins | 49c | 191$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.41 | 584 | 51.5%301 W · 283 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf025…48f8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9303…cc05backed Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 185.58$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.36 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.45 | 1,478 | 51%754 W · 724 L | -19.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b89…9f72backed Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 114 | 55.3%63 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186b…9bbabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 139.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.63 | 535 | 38.7%207 W · 328 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Miami Marlins | 47c | 138$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Miami Marlins | 52c | 134.55$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.59 | 533 | 57.6%307 W · 226 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b3…33efbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 112.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Miami Marlins | 50c | 110.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.01 | 3,866 | 42.3%1,636 W · 2,230 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…3927backed Miami Marlins | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 97.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Miami Marlins | 44c | 96.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 1,258 | 44%553 W · 705 L | -33.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 94.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Miami Marlins | 48c | 94.72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 872 | 54.2%473 W · 399 L | +26.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc65…2e55backed Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 92.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -4.0wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Miami Marlins | 52c | 90.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 1,267 | 58.5%741 W · 526 L | +26.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb417…437fbacked Miami Marlins | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…9e7bbacked Miami Marlins | 48c | 78.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 196 | 49.5%97 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…a799backed Philadelphia Phillies | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 75.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Miami Marlins | 26c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 3,231 | 51.2%1,655 W · 1,576 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 68.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 441 | 49%216 W · 225 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 37c | 65.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 475 | 52.4%249 W · 226 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42c…9a9ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 63.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 57.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 259 | 48.3%125 W · 134 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…6aaabacked Miami Marlins | 47c | 52.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6b…b0b9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 51.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Miami Marlins | 52c | 45.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 462 | 58%268 W · 194 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Miami Marlins | 52c | 45.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 608 | 59.2%360 W · 248 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee5f…5468backed Philadelphia Phillies | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…edcfbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 39.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Miami Marlins | 46c | 36.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 1,979 | 53.2%1,052 W · 927 L | +45.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Miami Marlins | 53c | 35.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 1,049 | 58.4%613 W · 436 L | +21.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Philadelphia Phillies | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 604 | 34.3%207 W · 397 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…4db0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 31.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Miami Marlins | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 2,444 | 50.1%1,225 W · 1,219 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x840b…345fbacked Miami Marlins | 48c | 28.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Miami Marlins | 47c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 384 | 49%188 W · 196 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Miami Marlins | 71c | 26.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,292 | 56.8%734 W · 558 L | +31.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Miami Marlins | 48c | 26.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 423 | 48.2%204 W · 219 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Miami Marlins | 49c | 21.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 747 | 52.5%392 W · 355 L | +17.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Philadelphia Phillies | 52c | 20.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,153 | 50.2%1,080 W · 1,073 L | +27.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Miami Marlins | 75c | 15.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 2,200 | 40.2%884 W · 1,316 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.