MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2db75bb9013a0a10f026d40dc9fc7a5542eaa092c399db9fd7da7f390a0e38d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 12,649$6,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,150.41 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 64c | 7,896$5,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,079.44 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 35c | 5,416$1,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,507.71 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f48…235cbacked Under | 47c | 4,449$2,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,088.79 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 3,978$2,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,072.23 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 2,570$1,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,859.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 61c | 2,497$1,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.51 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 31c | 1,872$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,293.82 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 43c | 1,600$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 55c | 1,475$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.94 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 43c | 1,241$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.63 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…68cabacked Over | 57c | 1,166$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.29 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 56c | 1,111$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.84 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 53c | 1,081$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.13 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 57c | 1,068$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.22 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 43c | 952.38$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.52 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 43c | 952.38$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.52 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 66c | 761.95$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.58 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 42c | 654.68$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.48 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 44c | 523.64$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.4 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 75c | 500.01$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 476$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.35 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 67c | 297.69$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.2 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Over | 53c | 255.5$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.08 | 127 | 59.1%75 W · 52 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 58c | 218$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.56 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 33c | 160$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.91 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 67c | 148.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.31 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 67c | 148.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.59 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 44c | 125.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 45c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 34c | 118.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.75 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 66c | 114.37$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.3 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 44c | 111.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 54c | 107$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 46c | 105.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 56c | 102.52$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 38c | 99.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 45c | 67.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 58c | 66.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 71c | 63.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 57c | 60.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 68c | 57.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Under | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Over | 32c | 51.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Under | 43c | 48.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x641d…eeedbacked Over | 56c | 43.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Under | 45c | 43.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 44c | 42.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 44c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 45c | 38.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…ed42backed Over | 55c | 38.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…1e14backed Under | 43c | 37.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x88b8…4a59backed Over | 68c | 36.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Over | 39c | 34.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 36c | 33.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 33.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Over | 58c | 32.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…8eebbacked Under | 66c | 30.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…549dbacked Under | 67c | 30.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 66c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 53c | 29.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc4…4870backed Over | 48c | 28.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Under | 43c | 28.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 52c | 26.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Under | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 49c | 22.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…d3dbbacked Under | 57c | 20.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4f…5ec9backed Under | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.