MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68ddcddbacd34c0d8a61d6913222887f93b22db207a606a92e80a02969d6f1d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Philadelphia Phillies, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 68c | 8,410$5,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,720.4 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 30c | 8,105$2,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,435.32 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Miami Marlins | 48c | 1,843$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.79 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 1,600$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.58 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 631.07$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.46 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 561.5$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.46 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 483.87$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 114 | 64%73 W · 41 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 34c | 432.5$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.05 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Philadelphia Phillies | 31c | 380.52$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.46 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Philadelphia Phillies | 32c | 373$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.36 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 273$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.56 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 249.27$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.61 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Philadelphia Phillies | 33c | 221.36$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 221.35$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.26 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 137.6$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 134.72$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.79 | 127 | 59.1%75 W · 52 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 93.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 80.1$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 43.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 40.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Philadelphia Phillies | 41c | 36.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Miami Marlins | 49c | 34.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Miami Marlins | 46c | 34.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 31.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 18.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.