Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb64154b8dbe58e3eb4b221ec85016c92271ac5bb0449240235e9a79c45121502
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 706 | 45.8%323 W · 383 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 31c | 230.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 204.39$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 200.83$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.09 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 167.62$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 53c | 135.3$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 74c | 131.04$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 623 | 23.8%148 W · 475 L | -21.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 70c | 123.76$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 190 | 46.3%88 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 75c | 120.8$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 111.36$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 36c | 111$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked Yes | 49c | 93.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 134 | 35.1%47 W · 87 L | -21.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 89.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 35c | 69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 49c | 67.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 515 | 52%268 W · 247 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 66.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 58c | 55.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 33c | 52.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 4,148 | 56.7%2,351 W · 1,797 L | +51.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 48.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 66c | 46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 33c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 32c | 41.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 66c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 55c | 35.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 33.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2799…b1e1backed No | 66c | 30.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 77c | 26.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 72c | 24.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 23.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 64c | 20.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 72c | 17.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 85 | 76.5%65 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on August 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.