Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8a588092f5b9b52dc38b1208a19eceaa8f06377ea3a1a80393c869e7ee546d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 44c | 3,432$1,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,513.01 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 54c | 700$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 554.71$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.98 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 46c | 376.59$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.23 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 55c | 298.2$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.19 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 272$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.4 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 47c | 221.28$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 202.52$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.01 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 55c | 181.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.81 | 290 | 43.8%127 W · 163 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 134 | 47.8%64 W · 70 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 61c | 148.38$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.83 | 483 | 62.5%302 W · 181 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 138.88$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 55c | 131.02$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 56c | 118.15$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.39 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 57c | 113$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 55c | 111.36$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 45c | 105.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 58c | 100.34$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 881 | 50.5%445 W · 436 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 219 | 40.6%89 W · 130 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 577 | 57.7%333 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 457 | 46.4%212 W · 245 L | -20.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 85.01$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 46c | 83.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 47c | 81.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 66.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 38c | 58.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | +32.0wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 45c | 57.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 623 | 23.8%148 W · 475 L | -21.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 57c | 57.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 56c | 55.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 54.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 42c | 54.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 53c | 54.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 58c | 50.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 53c | 45.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 253 | 57.7%146 W · 107 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 42.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 34c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,477 | 58.6%865 W · 612 L | +72.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 46c | 39.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 33c | 38.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 312 | 38.1%119 W · 193 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 45c | 31.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 33c | 30.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 296 | 28.4%84 W · 212 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2799…b1e1backed No | 57c | 30.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 57c | 28.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x383a…a20cbacked Yes | 49c | 28.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 60c | 26.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked No | 52c | 26.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 56c | 24.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 56c | 21.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0aa…3259backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 265 | 57.7%153 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebb…9ed8backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 67c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on August 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.