UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb66ac1a3a721ac526942d0166b62711f34d1ad6c6844e78513ecefec603b693e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 63c | 3,098$1,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.45 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e56…55bbbacked Over | 37c | 861.89$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…916fbacked Over | 36c | 694.44$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Over | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 155 | 49%76 W · 79 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 35c | 312.72$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.58 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…643abacked Over | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Over | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Over | 36c | 166.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…ab05backed Under | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa430…c6f9backed Under | 66c | 151.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Over | 35c | 136.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed Over | 36c | 109.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb0…2329backed Over | 38c | 89.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…63bebacked Under | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4c…ad1bbacked Over | 39c | 74.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 34c | 69.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…bc65backed Over | 38c | 64.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 40c | 62.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Under | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f48…8275backed Over | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…c14abacked Under | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe250…ea7abacked Over | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 64c | 22.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 64c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 63c | 18.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 138 | 36.2%50 W · 88 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 60c | 18.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9947…925dbacked Under | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 60c | 17.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card)Sergei Pavlovich won
- Will Sergei Pavlovich win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Tallison Teixeira win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.