Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb69ef093faeddb36aa9556b5903a9e9e6953d6c61eaa41a8632d047dc119bf2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zero Tenacityof Aurora, Zero Tenacity
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Aurora | 57c | 3,672$2,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,095.24 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Zero Tenacity | 51c | 1,124$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.75 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Zero Tenacity | 34c | 999$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.34 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0617…154dbacked Aurora | 54c | 816.04$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Zero Tenacity | 26c | 763.75$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.43 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Aurora | 49c | 749.67$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.11 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Aurora | 9c | 700$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Zero Tenacity | 73c | 647.73$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.74 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Zero Tenacity | 47c | 640.85$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…d9d7backed Zero Tenacity | 51c | 590.84$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.9 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed Zero Tenacity | 70c | 456.48$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.48 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Aurora | 42c | 440$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.72 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Zero Tenacity | 52c | 407.42$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.57 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Aurora | 30c | 371.98$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.63 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Aurora | 78c | 242.87$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.89 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Zero Tenacity | 75c | 238.83$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Zero Tenacity | 75c | 232.61$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Zero Tenacity | 22c | 228.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.67 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x871e…6566backed Zero Tenacity | 62c | 228.29$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.75 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Aurora | 33c | 199.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…89d0backed Zero Tenacity | 60c | 192.4$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.2 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17ca…87d1backed Aurora | 55c | 145.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.12 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -15.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…f488backed Aurora | 30c | 140$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Aurora | 44c | 123.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…951cbacked Zero Tenacity | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora | 54c | 99.45$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Aurora | 33c | 89.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Zero Tenacity | 41c | 89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…1208backed Aurora | 57c | 61.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Zero Tenacity | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Zero Tenacity | 46c | 58.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Zero Tenacity | 64c | 52.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Aurora | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Zero Tenacity | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…3ac2backed Zero Tenacity | 54c | 40.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Aurora | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b5…9ea7backed Aurora | 27c | 39.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d16…528abacked Aurora | 49c | 36.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Zero Tenacity | 65c | 36.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62c5…a861backed Zero Tenacity | 44c | 35.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked Aurora | 79c | 35.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 212 | 53.8%114 W · 98 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Zero Tenacity | 43c | 34.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed Aurora | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8a…d30fbacked Aurora | 76c | 32.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77da…9a99backed Aurora | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4694…7527backed Aurora | 74c | 25.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -4.6wins | -0.42per pick | 69cpaid | -65%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…d2b5backed Zero Tenacity | 59c | 22.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed Zero Tenacity | 69c | 21.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Aurora | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Zero Tenacity | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +253%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Zero Tenacity | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora | 79c | 17.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Zero Tenacity | 76c | 16.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee1…377abacked Zero Tenacity | 78c | 13.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…6ae0backed Zero Tenacity | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.