Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6a53fd04482da4c9d4e1cdf17609da7a5e06e763df2b73fd2b013577437b821
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 332.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 68c | 319.5$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.71 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 48c | 246.94$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.14 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 78c | 231.72$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 210.12$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 65c | 209.37$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.28 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 208.94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…8508backed Yes | 24c | 192.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 63c | 190.93$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.79 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…41a2backed Yes | 35c | 160$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 55c | 131.67$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.06 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 34c | 113.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…d1b9backed Yes | 36c | 111.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 37c | 108.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 37c | 99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 67c | 97.89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 31c | 90.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 65c | 88.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 57c | 84.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed No | 68c | 84.41$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed Yes | 70c | 71.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 24c | 66.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed No | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 32c | 63.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…d845backed Yes | 35c | 57.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…4e32backed No | 58c | 51.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed No | 68c | 51.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 68c | 49.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 45c | 47.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 34c | 43.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 66c | 42.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 32c | 39.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 34c | 39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 55c | 36.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 45c | 33.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 55c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b5…3300backed Yes | 34c | 32.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 31.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 66c | 30.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9e6cbacked No | 69c | 28.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 56c | 27.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 68c | 26.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 25.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0583…b86fbacked No | 80c | 25.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87bd…9712backed Yes | 50c | 24.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 45c | 23.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 67c | 23.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 65c | 23.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 21.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 66c | 21.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 50c | 20.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 69c | 20.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed No | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 20.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…636abacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 69c | 18.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 64c | 15.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.