Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6c65b7b648b8247d83c9f8cfb1e5e25ef849a76f0a04482e0f67b8911bd3e10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 19c | 638.41$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.08 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 19c | 597.87$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.49 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 343.03$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…8fabbacked Yes | 9c | 188.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 61c | 163.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.11 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f13…edcfbacked No | 70c | 156.57$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 115.12$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 34c | 110.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 106.05$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…76b5backed Yes | 25c | 105.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 21c | 100.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…690fbacked Yes | 15c | 97.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 93.32$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 33c | 89.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 77c | 86.4$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 74c | 71.73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked Yes | 20c | 71.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 78c | 65.57$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 56.05$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe6…6dd9backed Yes | 39c | 53.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 23c | 50.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 79c | 50.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb5…d2c8backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 69c | 48.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…1d86backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c66…fa81backed Yes | 30c | 38.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 37.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 69c | 29.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 80c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…8469backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked No | 65c | 24.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…bd99backed No | 70c | 21.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab2…5d06backed No | 70c | 19.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 68c | 18.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 64c | 17.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 14.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or below on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.