Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x677b694596ad8006beb8332790fc405feed668d1dae9a8afda4cf924c7e4c9fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 29c | 693.32$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.78 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 21c | 462.48$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0549…3ee4backed Yes | 4c | 420$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 21c | 378.27$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.86 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 55c | 352.38$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.27 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 7c | 319.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 41c | 300$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 76c | 251.86$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 67c | 227.66$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked No | 67c | 217.23$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.77 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 215.79$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 28c | 207.63$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 26c | 187.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed Yes | 34c | 184.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.52 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 17c | 184.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 178.85$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 178$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 177$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.93 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 156.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 33c | 151.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 129.5$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb0…3ad3backed No | 77c | 129.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 127$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked No | 74c | 122.88$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 61c | 115.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 77c | 115.61$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 78c | 109.44$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…76b5backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 62c | 94.58$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked Yes | 42c | 94.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 23c | 94.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 16c | 87.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 70c | 85.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 68c | 84.17$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed Yes | 48c | 82.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 20c | 73.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 65c | 71.89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 63.17$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 59.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 74c | 57.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 64c | 57.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 50c | 57.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 22c | 53.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 27c | 52.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 27c | 51.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb5…d2c8backed Yes | 22c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 33c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 44.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 69c | 43.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed Yes | 23c | 42.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44fa…cc91backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 39.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 38.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 70c | 36.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6241…0b3ebacked Yes | 52c | 32.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 62c | 27.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 54c | 27.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed Yes | 48c | 22.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 67c | 17.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 76c | 17.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a41…0b28backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or below on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.