Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc037664f1ce5a185f469524dbb2d8d823f8dd904008fcfa237c5ea34c97c7b53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 30c | 613.77$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.72 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 32c | 600.35$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.51 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 32c | 389.82$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.57 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked No | 69c | 295$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.71 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 66c | 251.66$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.79 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 215.76$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.27 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 199.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed Yes | 33c | 184.35$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 6c | 183.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 66c | 183.65$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.97 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 153$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…8fabbacked Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 69c | 144.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 71c | 138.96$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 76c | 129.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 47c | 118$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 47c | 106.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 50c | 100.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…76b5backed Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 72c | 99.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…690fbacked Yes | 22c | 96.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 92.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 35c | 88.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 79.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 75.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 32c | 74.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 78c | 71.24$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 70.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 68c | 69.07$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 64.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 64.03$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 65c | 59.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 33c | 54.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb5…d2c8backed Yes | 43c | 53.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabe6…6dd9backed Yes | 36c | 52.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked Yes | 45c | 50.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 74c | 48.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 27c | 46.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 45c | 44.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 76c | 42.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44fa…cc91backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 38.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…1840backed No | 56c | 36.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 35.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb0…3ad3backed Yes | 33c | 34.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 42c | 33.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 68c | 30.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe9…71cdbacked Yes | 35c | 29.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 28.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…8eeabacked No | 59c | 26.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 66c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 59c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked No | 60c | 21.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 69c | 21.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe33…d3aabacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked No | 69c | 19.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 75c | 17.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x016d…e9b4backed No | 68c | 15.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…0c07backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or below on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.