Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadbb899eec1e427b4be377675ffc075a83ee6340d111a45c1cc0a61d8cda903b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,962
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,962 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 65c | 814.98$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.66 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 5c | 595.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.75 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 14c | 425.34$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.21 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 377.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 9c | 360.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.99 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 13c | 350.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.66 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 45c | 325.93$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.91 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 9c | 281.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.14 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 22c | 266.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.97 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…a6dcbacked No | 5c | 257.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 49c | 246.97$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.27 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 64c | 246.42$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.93 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 26c | 243.49$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.05 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 243.19$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.85 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 14c | 237.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.05 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 14c | 234.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.41 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 12c | 226.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.57 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 64c | 223.1$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.27 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 80c | 214.46$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.29 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 39c | 206.37$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.49 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 17c | 199.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.02 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 194.12$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 53c | 186.92$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed Yes | 16c | 184.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.12 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46bc…4894backed Yes | 9c | 177.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.99 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 174.73$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.15 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 9c | 171.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.36 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 38c | 153$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.83 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 9c | 149.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 141$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 11c | 128.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.69 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 14c | 105$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18eb…c5fbbacked Yes | 20c | 98.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.8wins | +0.30per pick | 51cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…5a96backed Yes | 14c | 98.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 46c | 97.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b9…0893backed Yes | 11c | 95.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.16 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 27c | 89.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 15c | 87.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.13 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 63c | 77.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 54c | 77.6$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…76b5backed Yes | 14c | 73.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.97 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc45…57a8backed Yes | 56c | 71.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…7513backed Yes | 22c | 71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 26c | 60.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…ee43backed Yes | 24c | 56.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 58c | 51.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked No | 53c | 47.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 52c | 47.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a5…9886backed No | 28c | 45.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 47c | 29.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…b385backed No | 58c | 29.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 63c | 24.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 77c | 13.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or below on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.