Fifa International · resolved market
Will Mali win on 2026-01-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb72d04bd88b24ff5b8dd79ebe9277b32b4fbd2752de5eba8a62c7288c3682a4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $448,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $450,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $448,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7652…c6c5backed Yes | 1c | 255,994$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ac…cb7dbacked Yes | 0c | 48,700$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…54dcbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 28%28 W · 72 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…033abacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb85…7b68backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc542…20c5backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +150%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…187cbacked No | 64c | 4,500$2,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +4.5wins | +0.30per pick | 63cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1a65…15b1backed No | 62c | 3,387$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,287.01 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bf…6e21backed Yes | 15c | 3,069$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…079ebacked Yes | 37c | 2,133$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 80c | 1,780$1,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.09 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…0ec8backed Yes | 8c | 1,683$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.79 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…699abacked Yes | 7c | 1,341$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.31 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f13…a3f3backed Yes | 1c | 1,238$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab32…6242backed Yes | 8c | 1,219$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,142$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.46 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fc…d802backed Yes | 2c | 999.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…8571backed Yes | 38c | 823.68$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…d05ebacked Yes | 7c | 669.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 36c | 525.63$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.23 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Yes | 37c | 405.41$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 894 | 43.4%388 W · 506 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1d…820cbacked Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a83…195bbacked Yes | 41c | 365.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e20…1524backed Yes | 8c | 341.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9be…27bcbacked Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe86…ec62backed Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e76…caabbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed No | 74c | 244$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 208 | 56.7%118 W · 90 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 67c | 242.42$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 293 | 43%126 W · 167 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Yes | 33c | 242.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…a7e4backed Yes | 22c | 231.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…bca3backed No | 69c | 220$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7757…120cbacked Yes | 29c | 214.11$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22ef…49c3backed Yes | 9c | 170$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce3e…2f24backed Yes | 19c | 158.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…614cbacked Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Yes | 8c | 137$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3138…b523backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8931…6ac8backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x658f…f68bbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd35…ecebbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f8…95c0backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…5903backed Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 112 | 63.4%71 W · 41 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7003…684bbacked Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ba…a5cfbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d8…1f40backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +29%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…0369backed Yes | 33c | 53.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd00…7a45backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5353…d07fbacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Yes | 35c | 30.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mali win on 2026-01-03?this page
- Will Mali vs. Tunisia end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Tunisia win on 2026-01-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.