TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,088
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,640

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,088 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3c11…33c9backed No55c375.38$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20589661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes52c260.33$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.4765043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No37c186.24$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No38c168.61$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.713,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes74c136$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.495,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No32c135.58$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.966,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes43c134.44$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.9517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes41c107$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.131,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb89b…1a22backed Yes62c105.43$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.359783.5%81 W · 16 L+26.5wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+58.5%equal weight74+0.22 edge/pick
0xed22…6450backed Yes47c100.04$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4843139.2%169 W · 262 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.445,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6315939%62 W · 97 L+14.4wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+28%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked No54c99.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5429953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes52c95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2540237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9892…fd59backed No16c93.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156045%27 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No56c91.52$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.013,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1575…ac63backed No59c84.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.581952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1600…9236backed Yes43c80.86$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.2735432.5%115 W · 239 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes46c80.07$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.5634633.8%117 W · 229 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No26c78.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.351,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes48c76.33$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.3472952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No38c75.09$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.765,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd628…9356backed Yes50c73.27$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7113344.4%59 W · 74 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No18c72.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1229717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No50c68.73$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3725358.9%149 W · 104 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No55c67.51$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.421,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No39c63.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.941,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed Yes49c60.87$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8737942.2%160 W · 219 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No20c60.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8195852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c59.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes39c57.67$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.179,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc69a…4d6bbacked No52c57.52$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9116863.1%106 W · 62 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No43c57.49$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6514745.6%67 W · 80 L-11.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8786…6884backed No50c57.1$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.659761.9%60 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No49c55.36$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d88…39d8backed Yes37c54.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.33432.4%11 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No56c53$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6863757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91b3…0568backed Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8710…f9c7backed Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef14…3edabacked No50c49.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2517744.6%79 W · 98 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No58c46.18$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.592,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes45c45.47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0137355%205 W · 168 L+20.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7234…e457backed No63c43.26$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.152630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-45.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf362…0505backed Yes52c42.42$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.428453.6%45 W · 39 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x237b…9f36backed No57c42.27$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.993262.5%20 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7309…95bdbacked Yes46c42.11$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8111124.3%27 W · 84 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No56c40.71$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.893837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No50c40.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9398160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x194b…e572backed No58c38.89$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5619353.9%104 W · 89 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0fe…e62abacked Yes80c38.55$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7123677.1%182 W · 54 L+23.3wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+16.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbebe…15d5backed Yes50c38.32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.32650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes41c38.17$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.334,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No55c36.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes49c36.51$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5132352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes46c35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.93,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf92e…caa0backed Yes53c34.6$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.26250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No44c33.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x455f…f81ebacked Yes55c32.27$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce53…7c64backed No49c31.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No51c30.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4334369.4%238 W · 105 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No49c30.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.774,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No52c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.64,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.145,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes59c29.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.342849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes43c29.98$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9810443.3%45 W · 59 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+9.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9fbf…f003backed Yes42c28.6$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5930652.6%161 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No53c28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.849,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes55c27.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.452,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No57c26.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…abffbacked Yes47c25.2$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3530665%199 W · 107 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cbb…9b60backed No50c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.515915.7%25 W · 134 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8157…cdf5backed Yes54c24.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.51040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No49c21.68$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.551,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50e9…af97backed Yes56c21.2$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3310658.5%62 W · 44 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes53c21$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8791444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes76c20.63$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0340871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No57c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.479255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No56c18.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.592,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf64a…db74backed Yes68c18.47$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8233349.8%166 W · 167 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1118…bba7backed Yes76c15.38$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.692080%16 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick75cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.