TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
San Diego Padresof Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,153
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,175

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,153 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres73c524.22$383 inWon+$141.5412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Arizona Diamondbacks27c407.44$110 inLost-$110.013,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks26c346.36$90 inLost-$90.0511,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed San Diego Padres74c67.05$50 inWon+$17.4328749.5%142 W · 145 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Arizona Diamondbacks27c47.64$13 inLost-$12.861,20653.7%648 W · 558 L+29.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc730…c568backed Arizona Diamondbacks27c46.14$12 inLost-$12.4635747.6%170 W · 187 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked San Diego Padres72c41.54$30 inWon+$11.5845252.4%237 W · 215 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Arizona Diamondbacks28c36.54$10 inLost-$10.2356435.1%198 W · 366 L-21.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed San Diego Padres74c31.03$23 inWon+$8.0755645.3%252 W · 304 L-17.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed San Diego Padres74c26.21$19 inWon+$6.8147056.6%266 W · 204 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed San Diego Padres74c26.21$19 inWon+$6.8173355.3%405 W · 328 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed San Diego Padres74c26.2$19 inWon+$6.8152750.1%264 W · 263 L+19.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8543…ff1bbacked San Diego Padres74c25.85$19 inWon+$6.7210143.6%44 W · 57 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed San Diego Padres74c20.94$15 inWon+$5.4448751.5%251 W · 236 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed San Diego Padres74c20.68$15 inWon+$5.3842451.9%220 W · 204 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1425…3bc8backed San Diego Padres74c19.42$14 inWon+$5.051250%6 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4aab…38ccbacked San Diego Padres74c17.59$13 inWon+$4.5765359.6%389 W · 264 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25b4…635abacked San Diego Padres74c14.74$11 inWon+$3.833246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.