TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,913
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,016

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,913 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2b4f…0591backed Arizona Diamondbacks22c8,911$2,005 inLost-$2,004.85185.6%1 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick24cpaid-75.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres65c3,848$2,514 inWon+$1,333.4410,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres78c3,472$2,691 inWon+$781.2311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Diego Padres78c2,668$2,068 inWon+$600.34,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Arizona Diamondbacks35c2,605$901 inLost-$901.334,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed San Diego Padres78c2,266$1,756 inWon+$509.924,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa013…2f8cbacked San Diego Padres69c1,796$1,246 inWon+$550.38955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed Arizona Diamondbacks35c1,229$425 inLost-$425.2647358.4%276 W · 197 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a09…ab7ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks35c602.66$209 inLost-$208.5210252%53 W · 49 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks36c413.25$150 inLost-$149.691,00058.8%588 W · 412 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Arizona Diamondbacks35c260.49$90 inLost-$90.131,20558.8%708 W · 497 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks35c130.26$45 inLost-$45.0740658.4%237 W · 169 L+2.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Arizona Diamondbacks35c130.26$45 inLost-$45.0755259.6%329 W · 223 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e96…33c9backed Arizona Diamondbacks37c106.7$40 inLost-$403826.3%10 W · 28 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-37.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres65c54$35 inWon+$18.868,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks33c51.07$17 inLost-$16.665,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked San Diego Padres71c50.11$36 inWon+$14.3679955.9%447 W · 352 L+21.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe0a…b267backed San Diego Padres78c22.22$17 inWon+$512154.5%66 W · 55 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.