MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9575d20881a699760d485b0583582f29c7a7b10f910de250123b138a30648c0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e50…0ea8backed Under | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 58 | 6.9%4 W · 54 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 25c | 1,254$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.83 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 70c | 1,244$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.4 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 57c | 1,167$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.19 | 686 | 52.9%363 W · 323 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…4c4ebacked Under | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 3.9%2 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0160…c757backed Under | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…9490backed Under | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 57c | 862$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.34 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 43c | 844$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.08 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 55c | 770.02$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.76 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…5e3fbacked Under | 55c | 697.66$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.71 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 8c | 680$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 57c | 672.85$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.03 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Under | 56c | 635.24$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.73 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e7…91a2backed Under | 3c | 525.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 59 | 3.4%2 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 43c | 511.65$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.64 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…e6a6backed Under | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 70 | 7.1%5 W · 65 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 73c | 467.03$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.1 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 71c | 440$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.82 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 321.95$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.83 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 44c | 311.49$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.44 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 309.99$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.69 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 43c | 168$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.4 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ae…3a89backed Over | 41c | 142.85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.28 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 40c | 132.58$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 14c | 128.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 38c | 121.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 324 | 34.6%112 W · 212 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 57c | 119.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 44c | 108.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.59 | 1,003 | 44.6%447 W · 556 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 42c | 106.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 46c | 88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Under | 34c | 83.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 333 | 52.3%174 W · 159 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Under | 14c | 81.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x467c…614dbacked Over | 54c | 72.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 55c | 64.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 49c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 532 | 38.5%205 W · 327 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 741 | 43.5%322 W · 419 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 477 | 52.8%252 W · 225 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed Under | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…ed42backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 68c | 31.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 56c | 22.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18cd…b710backed Over | 76c | 14.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 13.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-6.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.