MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e4e1590b336ff6c4681895ad9498f2f8e4d3e90a2bdd0cc91ca00eec2fdceba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 21,853$11,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,236.46 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 45c | 17,966$8,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,913.98 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 52c | 7,154$3,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,434.24 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 53c | 2,258$1,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.06 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…5e3fbacked Over | 55c | 1,499$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.55 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 50c | 1,011$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.32 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 71c | 1,010$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.9 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 50c | 998.62$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.31 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 48c | 786.92$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.38 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 36c | 611.11$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.11 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 604$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.44 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 75c | 568.09$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.78 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 64c | 416$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.24 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 63c | 393.04$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.62 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2899…707fbacked Over | 37c | 352.5$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 55c | 335.25$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.44 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 31c | 246.61$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.16 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 56c | 232.23$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 51c | 228.09$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.58 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 36c | 179$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.56 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Under | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3776…e17abacked Over | 60c | 122$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 40c | 118.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 309 | 34.3%106 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Under | 35c | 111$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 707 | 35.1%248 W · 459 L | -31.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Under | 27c | 85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 39c | 81.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Under | 34c | 77.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 64c | 72.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 54c | 70.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 39c | 51.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under | 41c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7815…7310backed Under | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Under | 52c | 42.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…94cfbacked Under | 28c | 38.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 36c | 37.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 47c | 30.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 45c | 30.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfcb…548fbacked Over | 44c | 26.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 49c | 24.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 58c | 20.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 13.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-6.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.