MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x185af7d5315d2e70cc51506738464a60b034bd51cb085b872af6096b810867c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x408f…b2f4backed No | 50c | 40,081$20,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,000 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Yes | 50c | 29,954$14,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,977 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 51c | 8,435$4,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,173.67 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 54c | 2,159$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.14 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 46c | 1,890$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.4 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 53c | 991.57$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.38 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 51c | 600$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 51c | 522.99$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.59 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 49c | 427.69$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.12 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4263…81f8backed No | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 51c | 333.54$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…1d79backed No | 49c | 312.08$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.92 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -17.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6808…899bbacked No | 48c | 288.17$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9abf…e301backed No | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa21e…044abacked Yes | 53c | 123.95$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.85 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25d5…11fcbacked No | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Yes | 46c | 99.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed No | 48c | 93.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked No | 48c | 75.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 52c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 213 | 43.2%92 W · 121 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed No | 46c | 51.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed No | 48c | 47.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1712…e388backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Yes | 53c | 40.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 46c | 37.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Yes | 75c | 34.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Yes | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 486 | 51.6%251 W · 235 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…ed42backed No | 49c | 30.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…0cd6backed Yes | 52c | 27.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacksthis page
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 13.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-6.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.