TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$200,363
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$203,145

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $200,363 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa710…23c4backed Under46c100,000$46,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,00055053.1%292 W · 258 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Over54c91,000$49,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,8601,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over54c68,389$36,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,571.684,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Under46c26,666$12,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,266.366264.5%40 W · 22 L+8.8wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+28%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed Under46c10,000$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,60036246.1%167 W · 195 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Under46c9,973$4,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,587.5859549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over53c5,956$3,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,799.5311,35652.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L+209.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under47c5,645$2,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6536,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Over55c4,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,80048952.8%258 W · 231 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under45c3,182$1,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,432.123,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Under46c3,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,38019053.7%102 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e9c…1fcabacked Over54c2,778$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,277.786942%29 W · 40 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Under47c2,737$1,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,286.5773949.8%368 W · 371 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Under47c2,737$1,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,286.5779255.6%440 W · 352 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Over55c2,729$1,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.942,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec95…a2dcbacked Under47c2,553$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2005451.9%28 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Over54c1,740$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.41,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over55c1,500$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.9995850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5633…59bcbacked Under45c1,405$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.2527952%145 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over55c1,404$772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.81,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Under46c1,333$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.3338353.5%205 W · 178 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Over54c1,174$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.291,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcba5…cd88backed Under47c1,064$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50066050.2%331 W · 329 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Under47c1,033$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.281,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Under47c1,032$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.951,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under42c1,017$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.3110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under12c925.31$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.838,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over54c922.96$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.5636048.6%175 W · 185 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Under46c869.57$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40087750.4%442 W · 435 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Under47c868.78$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.3356253.2%299 W · 263 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Under46c780$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.81,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb88a…f6adbacked Under45c700$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31528753.3%153 W · 134 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2185…b40cbacked Under46c650$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29926255.7%146 W · 116 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Over55c647.17$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.186653%459 W · 407 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d23…251cbacked Under47c619.09$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.9711751.3%60 W · 57 L+0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2396…9485backed Under47c609.16$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.4328751.9%149 W · 138 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a64…683ebacked Under46c499.98$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.998045%36 W · 44 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb797…e779backed Under46c400$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1849048.9%44 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under46c395.09$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.778,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under46c348.99$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.312,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under45c301.79$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.84,47748.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L-47.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff19…3ebebacked Under47c282.23$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.6540447.8%193 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3a6…71bdbacked Under49c226.56$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9410157.4%58 W · 43 L+8.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over54c225.08$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.796,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbb6…25eabacked Under44c225$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9912944.2%57 W · 72 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Under24c221.17$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.643,45651.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L+107.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf025…48f8backed Over55c218.18$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.18966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under46c181$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.6999447.3%470 W · 524 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Over53c166.13$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.4245252.4%237 W · 215 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f45…e6a7backed Under47c159.57$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756454.7%35 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under45c150$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.52,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Under47c149.57$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.356851.4%292 W · 276 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0612…559abacked Under45c124$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.861250.5%309 W · 303 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa917…4e8dbacked Under45c120$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5428347.3%134 W · 149 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Under39c111.87$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4479955.9%447 W · 352 L+21.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52de…8f92backed Under46c108.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014469.4%100 W · 44 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Under47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,19550%597 W · 598 L+5.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa65c…509dbacked Under47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5024350.2%122 W · 121 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4499624.6%245 W · 751 L-70.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451,80353.8%970 W · 833 L+17.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed Under46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4623255.2%128 W · 104 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Over56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4454146.8%253 W · 288 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ede…23e5backed Under45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Over53c91.22$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.511,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5016…ada1backed Under45c89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0535650.6%180 W · 176 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under47c86.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.482,94447.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L+4.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Under45c79.78$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.948651.6%251 W · 235 L+2.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Over54c79.62$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.761,20653.7%648 W · 558 L+29.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79b5…df9bbacked Under47c74.14$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.859246.7%43 W · 49 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa448…3046backed Under45c72$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.43557.1%20 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under35c67.14$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed Under35c62.91$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8629251%149 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aca…61fdbacked Over52c62.24$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8827454.4%149 W · 125 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b2…79ddbacked Under47c61.6$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.954257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x55e7…4fb9backed Under45c61.33$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.617645.5%80 W · 96 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x833c…ac24backed Under47c53.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.969549.5%47 W · 48 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1f…1e14backed Under46c52.11$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.977565.3%49 W · 26 L+10.1wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+25.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Under23c50.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.532,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x317b…7ee2backed Under46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+32.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a9c…0f59backed Under47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.59452.1%49 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Over55c48.91$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1356435.1%198 W · 366 L-21.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc730…c568backed Under47c47.35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2535747.6%170 W · 187 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Under45c44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.81,29950.9%661 W · 638 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6808…899bbacked Under45c44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.84942.9%21 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa1…2c8abacked Under46c43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.789041.1%37 W · 53 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0654…f5a9backed Under46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.415848.1%76 W · 82 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under37c37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.699,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over63c37$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6952638.4%202 W · 324 L+1.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x402a…624fbacked Over77c35.95$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2722949.8%114 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Under44c34.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0861352.5%322 W · 291 L+29.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over61c34.22$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.332,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a96…b382backed Under46c32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7239652.8%209 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86ee…511fbacked Under47c31.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9524350.6%123 W · 120 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e4a…4ce0backed Under45c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.516155.9%90 W · 71 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee5f…5468backed Over55c29.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over65c29.52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.331,07558.3%627 W · 448 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Under47c28.21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.261,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c4…fce5backed Under45c28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.620551.7%106 W · 99 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9c…8927backed Under46c28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8818751.9%97 W · 90 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4be8…26adbacked Over51c28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.72887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.40per pick48cpaid+82.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.