Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7acaefd0b836df9476ee70dbd912e6157347fe92af225c00eab038cae1ebcce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,124 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 25c | 999.97$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes | 19c | 305$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.35 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 75c | 276.68$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.17 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 273.4$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.67 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 26c | 203.86$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 170.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 150.94$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…0ab4backed No | 74c | 148.91$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 29c | 136.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 44c | 118.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 111.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 24c | 103.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 28c | 102.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 99.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 26c | 90.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 81.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a37…1059backed Yes | 27c | 55.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…9891backed Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe423…2492backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 21c | 49.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 46.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa662…4823backed Yes | 23c | 43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 38.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 34c | 35.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 35.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 74c | 33.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 27.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 74c | 27.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed No | 80c | 25.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ba…5ce7backed No | 75c | 24.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 73c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc281…ee17backed No | 75c | 21.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 74c | 18.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda29…25a1backed No | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on March 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.