Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07b643c1e6f62c17d3e5a9b3160cecbd485fd7945342d05337708f364eabbb66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,159 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaec7…3570backed No | 3c | 517.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…f96fbacked Yes | 76c | 483.53$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.53 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 39c | 429.68$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.89 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 18c | 320.56$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 65c | 286.36$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.93 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfb…f448backed Yes | 72c | 278.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 269.25$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.26 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 32c | 265.43$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.55 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 263.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 52c | 246.84$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.97 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 72c | 224.17$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.03 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 25c | 224$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 66c | 221.36$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 34c | 200.8$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 65c | 194.87$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.23 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 60c | 192.96$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.28 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 38c | 192.54$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.71 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x663a…5c51backed No | 37c | 192.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…19eabacked Yes | 62c | 161.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 72c | 158.43$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 68c | 147.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 69c | 126.54$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 119.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 39c | 118.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd95…e333backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 30c | 97.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 39c | 95.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 78.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 74.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 32c | 72.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37eb…8aeabacked Yes | 63c | 67.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 32c | 66.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 61c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…d0cfbacked No | 33c | 63.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 24c | 63.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 31c | 60.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 42c | 59.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 61c | 56.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 73c | 53.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744a…0ea8backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked No | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 69c | 48.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 60c | 45.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 42c | 44.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 76c | 37.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 54c | 34.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…0c4ebacked No | 41c | 33.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 32c | 33.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed Yes | 77c | 32.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 62c | 32.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb91d…d2ddbacked Yes | 67c | 30.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e3…fcacbacked Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 66c | 28.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb076…dba6backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 72c | 25.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 66c | 22.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 61c | 21.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438b…7fb6backed No | 52c | 20.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…4165backed Yes | 72c | 17.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb6…636fbacked Yes | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee0…2fc9backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5a…e8efbacked Yes | 71c | 15.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…b8a5backed Yes | 71c | 15.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 76c | 14.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1879…b287backed Yes | 76c | 13.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.