Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7ad17532046752ceb5048b3daf0dbc61d758d1611c51630fd7bfd1c36051a5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 4c | 318.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 52c | 195.33$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.45 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 187.57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 170.92$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 150.75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 130.05$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 64c | 129.39$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.34 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 35c | 125.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 118.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 66c | 108.65$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 102.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 45c | 94.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 79c | 91.34$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 51c | 86.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 52c | 78.87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 76.51$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 73.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 72.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 17c | 72.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 61c | 71.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 71.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 47c | 69.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 45c | 68.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 49c | 57.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 49c | 57.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 57c | 55.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 39c | 55.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 54c | 54.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ca…59eebacked No | 22c | 48.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -11.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 44c | 45.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 44c | 43.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…a41ebacked Yes | 49c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 55c | 41.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 52c | 39.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 67c | 38.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 51c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 38c | 36.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 35.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 44c | 31.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 30.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 54c | 29.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 46c | 29.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 56c | 27.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 57c | 22.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 56c | 22.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 55c | 22.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 52c | 19.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 75c | 19.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 53c | 19.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 53c | 19.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 60c | 18.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…4117backed No | 60c | 18.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 67c | 17.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked Yes | 64c | 17.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 66c | 15.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 68c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 75c | 13.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.