Fifa International · resolved market
Will Lithuania win on 2025-09-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7cc92c99baca52edc6efbba3081ca8110292c9c3fefab96901091893b9d1694
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 58c | 9,451$5,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,473.93 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed No | 41c | 7,500$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,399.95 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked No | 44c | 2,400$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,351.79 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdc…7cddbacked Yes | 57c | 2,075$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed No | 40c | 2,004$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,202.21 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 61c | 1,685$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.93 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 13c | 1,256$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.47 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Yes | 49c | 1,028$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 169 | 65.1%110 W · 59 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked No | 46c | 999.98$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.99 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Yes | 50c | 995$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 46c | 705.98$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.71 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 42c | 600$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348 | 96 | 18.8%18 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Yes | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed No | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked No | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 53c | 483.33$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.27 | 292 | 32.9%96 W · 196 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed No | 54c | 400$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 60c | 350$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3545…741dbacked Yes | 47c | 265.96$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 40c | 248$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.8 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e37…03d2backed No | 52c | 220$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 54c | 210.74$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.8 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Yes | 38c | 121.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…9012backed No | 43c | 102.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +82%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…77c9backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 326 | 29.1%95 W · 231 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Yes | 31c | 96.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…c622backed Yes | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…e3b6backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…bbb9backed No | 42c | 55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0f…addabacked Yes | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked No | 43c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 40c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1654…4f2cbacked Yes | 59c | 28.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 42c | 23.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lithuania win on 2025-09-04?this page
- Will Lithuania vs. Malta end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Malta win on 2025-09-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.