Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb809112a3b239d9aa1fa1b3064151b1a27b16e7868eda141548f3962531168e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,121$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.47 | 1,369 | 20.7%283 W · 1,086 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b4…a4f5backed Yes | 21c | 839.34$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.08 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 79c | 409.52$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 364.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 351.03$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 177.48$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 71c | 113.38$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 503 | 51.9%261 W · 242 L | -26.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 110$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 1,433 | 52.1%747 W · 686 L | -21.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 18c | 108.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 1,876 | 18.6%348 W · 1,528 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 86.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 25c | 76.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 353 | 48.7%172 W · 181 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…2dedbacked No | 60c | 67.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +227.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 62.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 57.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 35c | 55.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 634 | 55.7%353 W · 281 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e5…f172backed No | 77c | 47.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 69c | 44.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a43…340fbacked Yes | 46c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 42.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 76c | 37.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 31c | 36.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 71c | 31.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,087 | 51.9%564 W · 523 L | +75.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 24.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 65c | 24.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 2,252 | 56.6%1,275 W · 977 L | +64.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 22.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 21.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 4,905 | 53.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L | +33.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 68c | 20.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 653 | 58.8%384 W · 269 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…21f4backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 470 | 63.6%299 W · 171 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…b1a8backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 781 | 55.3%432 W · 349 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,415 | 57.9%1,399 W · 1,016 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 75c | 19.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 68c | 18.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 78c | 17.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 66c | 15.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 123 | 75.6%93 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.