Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd843f58ef40d1214c9aaf6f4eb3fbfa861fc6553a910f5632a4096de7e09c0b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 9c | 2,537$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.01 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x000f…dc35backed Yes | 36c | 1,102$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 873.25$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.35 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…688ebacked Yes | 33c | 666.2$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.37 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 530.11$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5074…977bbacked No | 37c | 463.86$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.17 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +47%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 37c | 439.56$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.11 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 31c | 382.43$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.16 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 36c | 284.43$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.04 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 249.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 16c | 242.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 69c | 221.82$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.3 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 12c | 217.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 5c | 208.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 37c | 207.29$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.86 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 204.16$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 36c | 191.41$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 34c | 175.47$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.51 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 68c | 175$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 33c | 172$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.08 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 7c | 162$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b3…e571backed Yes | 67c | 149.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 128.97$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.45 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 122.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 14c | 119$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 108.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 11c | 106.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 12c | 106.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed No | 10c | 101$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 14c | 95.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 30c | 95.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 33c | 92.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b4…a4f5backed Yes | 25c | 90.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.51 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 89.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 86.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.55 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 67c | 81.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 64c | 77.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed Yes | 78c | 74.76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 62.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 66c | 62.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 29c | 60.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 28c | 60.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 64c | 57.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 34c | 57.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 36c | 55.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 31c | 51.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 45c | 50.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 68c | 50.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 48.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 34c | 44.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 39c | 41.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 41.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 39c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 33c | 37.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed No | 78c | 36.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1383…a2dfbacked Yes | 30c | 35.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 33c | 33.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 35c | 32.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…1dd9backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 50c | 29.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5329…3e3dbacked No | 73c | 26.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 66c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 79c | 19.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 66c | 19.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 68c | 19.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 17.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked No | 72c | 16.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked No | 69c | 15.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.