TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Purdue Boilermakersof Michigan Wolverines, Purdue Boilermakers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,893

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,893 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x33dd…ef8abacked Purdue Boilermakers52c3,965$2,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,903.5627851.1%142 W · 136 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Michigan Wolverines48c3,503$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,679.712,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Michigan Wolverines48c3,333$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.832,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44fd…b634backed Purdue Boilermakers52c2,419$1,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,161.132445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6859…fb90backed Purdue Boilermakers52c1,029$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.1112749.6%63 W · 64 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Purdue Boilermakers51c568.06$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.2312,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed Purdue Boilermakers56c534$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.594551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Michigan Wolverines48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24091848.9%449 W · 469 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Michigan Wolverines44c404.33$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.950548.9%247 W · 258 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x63ed…92bebacked Purdue Boilermakers47c299.98$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.991637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Michigan Wolverines50c269.62$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.8130152.8%159 W · 142 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50be…371bbacked Michigan Wolverines48c238.19$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.332334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-33.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x66df…7ea5backed Michigan Wolverines53c233.79$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.9111257.1%64 W · 48 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Purdue Boilermakers50c200.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.341,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x246d…c74dbacked Michigan Wolverines50c199.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.811741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfba…80ebbacked Michigan Wolverines51c194.36$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.135639.3%22 W · 34 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e01…7ef0backed Michigan Wolverines47c159.64$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3122950.7%116 W · 113 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Michigan Wolverines50c151.16$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.5846246.5%215 W · 247 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Purdue Boilermakers54c148.7$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.421850.5%110 W · 108 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Purdue Boilermakers50c148.62$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.2331448.7%153 W · 161 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Purdue Boilermakers50c77.65$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8392246%424 W · 498 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce9d…a219backed Michigan Wolverines51c68.22$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.697542.7%32 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6158…81bcbacked Purdue Boilermakers51c59.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Purdue Boilermakers47c59.84$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.631,23444.8%553 W · 681 L-32.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76bb…4548backed Michigan Wolverines50c58.93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.742548%12 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Michigan Wolverines49c58.67$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.751,25150.6%633 W · 618 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Michigan Wolverines50c57.51$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7583350.2%418 W · 415 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d94…954ebacked Purdue Boilermakers52c57.19$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.452564%16 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+22.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4855…6a41backed Michigan Wolverines48c51.63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7832652.8%172 W · 154 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc3a…e1f0backed Purdue Boilermakers51c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.526848.1%129 W · 139 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa96b…7d92backed Purdue Boilermakers52c40.22$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.317236.1%26 W · 46 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-19.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Michigan Wolverines49c37.67$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4653635.6%191 W · 345 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50ed…cbbebacked Michigan Wolverines54c36.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.831435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Purdue Boilermakers51c36.28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.631,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Michigan Wolverines49c33.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51,39752.7%736 W · 661 L+26.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Michigan Wolverines45c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.571655.3%396 W · 320 L+26.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Michigan Wolverines47c29.74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.982,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Michigan Wolverines48c29.22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0582846.1%382 W · 446 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c6…9947backed Michigan Wolverines38c27.39$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.48540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Michigan Wolverines53c26.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.271,23147%578 W · 653 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Michigan Wolverines48c25.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.334,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b1f…4eebbacked Michigan Wolverines51c23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7313147.3%62 W · 69 L-9.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Michigan Wolverines45c21.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Purdue Boilermakers50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1013457.5%77 W · 57 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd402…5a50backed Purdue Boilermakers50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.