NHL · resolved market
Bruins vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb870ce5aab4d03d5e643c4c0102a97fbbb5e4e94357a88a9231e33b9888d046f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 42c | 6,169$2,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,590.8 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 58c | 6,100$3,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,561.99 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Over | 42c | 4,243$1,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,795.2 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdc…b83fbacked Under | 58c | 4,053$2,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,702.45 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 58c | 1,923$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 42c | 1,553$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.45 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 42c | 1,257$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.02 | 287 | 49.8%143 W · 144 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Under | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 67c | 947.72$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 80c | 944$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.65 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 41c | 930.65$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.57 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 17c | 644.1$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.85 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 42c | 435$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.7 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1da3…2f94backed Under | 59c | 423.73$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.73 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 58c | 381.87$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.39 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d0…8dcebacked Over | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Under | 80c | 289.3$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -12.7wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 58c | 190$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Over | 42c | 177$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 35c | 129.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0eb…af1ebacked Over | 43c | 128.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 172 | 27.3%47 W · 125 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6495…6cd7backed Under | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c12…b8f3backed Under | 58c | 94.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ed…db3dbacked Under | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 42c | 76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Under | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9f…8e23backed Over | 42c | 61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1554…becdbacked Under | 58c | 53.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 58c | 50.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 719 | 52.4%377 W · 342 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Over | 42c | 46.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 311 | 48.2%150 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…db25backed Over | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 58c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfd…a4bbbacked Over | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 57c | 32.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 50c | 32.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa671…f693backed Over | 43c | 31.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cac…988ebacked Under | 75c | 26.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bruins vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5this page
- Bruins vs. SabresBruins won
- Bruins vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5Under won
- Bruins vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Under won
- Bruins vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Bruins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.