MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb883dba02d2430a76e0a0750002c25bfc6e9af1c427dce8c1ca716d91951861c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 6,953$2,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,341.89 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8377…4198backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 5,832$3,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,760 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Detroit Tigers | 66c | 4,384$2,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,911.93 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Kansas City Royals | 33c | 2,868$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,928.84 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 1,106$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.86 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Detroit Tigers | 67c | 1,063$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.98 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Kansas City Royals | 32c | 1,001$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 900$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Detroit Tigers | 46c | 652.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Kansas City Royals | 33c | 606.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.06 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Kansas City Royals | 32c | 436$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.48 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 351.97$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.79 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Detroit Tigers | 67c | 300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Kansas City Royals | 33c | 299.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.99 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Kansas City Royals | 32c | 260.09$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.86 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Detroit Tigers | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 165.25$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.49 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Detroit Tigers | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…d23bbacked Detroit Tigers | 67c | 152$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.84 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Kansas City Royals | 33c | 152$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.84 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4074…7d83backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2a…1e46backed Detroit Tigers | 58c | 148.36$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.35 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7490…f3efbacked Kansas City Royals | 45c | 132.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Detroit Tigers | 68c | 128.04$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.07 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Detroit Tigers | 49c | 104.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa0…9792backed Detroit Tigers | 66c | 80.39$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Detroit Tigers | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Detroit Tigers | 68c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Kansas City Royals | 32c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Detroit Tigers | 66c | 48.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Detroit Tigers | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Detroit Tigers | 68c | 33.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…df87backed Kansas City Royals | 55c | 30.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.