Bundesliga · resolved market
VfB Stuttgart vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8b86289cca928b022671cf95983c66b851ef91d3e4493f7c03d6b12daa95c6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 10,568$7,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,084.97 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…0b06backed Over | 35c | 10,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +154.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 8c | 1,890$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.17 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 8c | 1,761$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.27 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 27c | 1,191$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.89 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 3c | 833.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933a…d3c1backed Over | 3c | 699.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 22cpaid | +399.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 65c | 504.19$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.46 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 27c | 354.15$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.62 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 74c | 344.24$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 19c | 341.03$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 65c | 249.63$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.63 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 13c | 218.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 73c | 207.51$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 74c | 160.57$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 74c | 96.73$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 73c | 92.72$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16e1…c1ebbacked Under | 75c | 90.79$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 67c | 86.41$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Under | 74c | 65.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…d973backed Over | 26c | 39.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f25…4caabacked Under | 74c | 37.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +81%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Under | 68c | 37.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 73c | 33.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 73c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf7…cb5bbacked Under | 74c | 26.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 74cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Under | 76c | 24.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 75c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Under | 73c | 19.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 80c | 16.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfB Stuttgart vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5Under won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.