Bundesliga · resolved market
VfB Stuttgart vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bf842e43c8c31605192e936e3a7039c7a8c8d3d074f052bcc6c9fe8896fcd01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0941…0239backed Yes | 63c | 1,552$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 37c | 1,295$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.38 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 37c | 1,148$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.86 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Yes | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf07…e601backed Yes | 57c | 999.99$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 64c | 535.06$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.62 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 37c | 484.13$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.13 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 36c | 457.37$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.65 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed No | 38c | 399.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 44c | 350.83$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.29 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…f949backed Yes | 63c | 310.41$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.85 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Yes | 62c | 267.75$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.75 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5db…f982backed Yes | 64c | 242.93$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.46 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked Yes | 56c | 231.89$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 22c | 203.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8361…c9c9backed Yes | 62c | 192.86$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 10c | 188.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 36c | 187.66$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.55 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 37c | 180.15$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af5…4bbabacked Yes | 57c | 175$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 37c | 170.59$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed Yes | 75c | 170.52$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.43 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…6ea4backed Yes | 64c | 152.88$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 36c | 138.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4277…3154backed Yes | 63c | 138.3$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed No | 29c | 133.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 19c | 129.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 76c | 129.83$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked No | 17c | 112.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bc…7e01backed No | 22c | 105.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3696…69cebacked Yes | 61c | 99.98$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 57 | 71.9%41 W · 16 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefa2…ba3ebacked Yes | 80c | 87.24$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked No | 39c | 81.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 15c | 80.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f4…a47fbacked Yes | 80c | 78.53$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Yes | 55c | 60.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62cc…f56fbacked No | 40c | 60.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 70c | 56.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 45c | 54.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked No | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Yes | 64c | 41.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f02…8af6backed Yes | 65c | 40.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbf…f4e6backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Yes | 63c | 38.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed No | 44c | 33.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…8c35backed No | 44c | 33.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…3b36backed No | 37c | 31.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…14b2backed Yes | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fb…c51bbacked Yes | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3110…c3f5backed Yes | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…63b2backed Yes | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e083backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 61c | 29.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 63c | 29.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…fddbbacked Yes | 80c | 27.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 68cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Yes | 76c | 25.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…56e5backed Yes | 61c | 20.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea6…dcf5backed Yes | 71c | 19.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfB Stuttgart vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Spread: SV Werder Bremen (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)SV Werder Bremen won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5Under won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5Under won
- VfB Stuttgart vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.