Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Juncheng Shang vs Roberto Bautista Agut
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8b9b8385b9efb6f056b3928a3fd819768921acb12f9cbe63f10a4cf979ac4d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shangof Shang, Agut
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Shang | 74c | 8,644$6,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,265.98 | 765 | 46.8%358 W · 407 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc3…c0eabacked Shang | 78c | 7,261$5,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,615.37 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59f4…c1f1backed Agut | 26c | 5,922$1,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,551.27 | 182 | 37.9%69 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Agut | 24c | 5,704$1,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,366.89 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Agut | 26c | 2,630$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.83 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Agut | 19c | 2,291$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.06 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Agut | 17c | 1,737$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.7 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Shang | 80c | 1,518$1,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.1 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Shang | 74c | 1,397$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.22 | 872 | 51.1%446 W · 426 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Agut | 30c | 1,365$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.48 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Shang | 73c | 1,160$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.2 | 206 | 53.4%110 W · 96 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7a…7625backed Agut | 27c | 1,111$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 260 | 45.4%118 W · 142 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Shang | 72c | 1,069$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.14 | 2,444 | 51.3%1,254 W · 1,190 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba9c…d2c1backed Shang | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Agut | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Agut | 16c | 734.7$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.63 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Agut | 8c | 450$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Agut | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 784 | 52.9%415 W · 369 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Shang | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Agut | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Shang | 74c | 223$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 279 | 36.2%101 W · 178 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Agut | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Agut | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 228 | 40.4%92 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Agut | 29c | 173.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 46.9%60 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd29b…b518backed Agut | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Agut | 16c | 134.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 202 | 57.4%116 W · 86 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8f…8ed0backed Agut | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Agut | 27c | 93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…76e9backed Shang | 75c | 79.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Agut | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x395c…494bbacked Agut | 28c | 71.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba3…1aafbacked Agut | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1660…9d86backed Shang | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Shang | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Shang | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Juncheng Shang vs Roberto Bautista Agutthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Shang vs AgutShang won
- Set Handicap: Shang (-1.5) vs Agut (+1.5)Shang won
- Set Handicap: Shang (-2.5) vs Agut (+2.5)Agut won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.