Premier League · resolved market
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8e3d0fc602db1139d1f70d7b2c3e1745f402b5976ad0652b26a6b29f0f4dbc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Manchester United FCof AFC Bournemouth, Manchester United FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,026 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked AFC Bournemouth | 7c | 6,760$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.96 | 4,696 | 41.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed AFC Bournemouth | 12c | 2,791$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.2 | 6,047 | 45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked AFC Bournemouth | 10c | 965.75$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 120 | 20.8%25 W · 95 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e8…cc63backed AFC Bournemouth | 18c | 615$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked AFC Bournemouth | 9c | 533.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 286 | 33.9%97 W · 189 L | +19.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked AFC Bournemouth | 12c | 442.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 2,530 | 47.7%1,206 W · 1,324 L | +43.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed AFC Bournemouth | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed AFC Bournemouth | 7c | 345.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed AFC Bournemouth | 12c | 317.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 459 | 36.2%166 W · 293 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked AFC Bournemouth | 7c | 271.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked AFC Bournemouth | 12c | 259.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 1,923 | 42.4%815 W · 1,108 L | -42.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked AFC Bournemouth | 9c | 245$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed AFC Bournemouth | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked AFC Bournemouth | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 189 | 28%53 W · 136 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…7857backed AFC Bournemouth | 12c | 98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed AFC Bournemouth | 13c | 89.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 515 | 16.1%83 W · 432 L | -49.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5)this page
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-2.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)AFC Bournemouth won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)AFC Bournemouth won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.