TailMyPicks
Market

Premier League · resolved market

AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$82,059

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,059 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac75…1319backed Under60c15,000$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,999.983036.7%11 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over31c9,604$2,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,657.156,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over40c7,452$2,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,501.0850644.3%224 W · 282 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Over39c4,500$1,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,744.9813444.8%60 W · 74 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8698…e4a2backed Under60c3,333$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf15b…63d4backed Over40c3,333$1,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,999.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under61c3,100$1,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8791,28348%616 W · 667 L-5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over51c2,839$1,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,397.784,76841.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Under69c2,162$1,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,492.0416753.3%89 W · 78 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-14.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f9c…b3e0backed Under44c2,089$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under61c1,863$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,136.4315534.2%53 W · 102 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2628…757bbacked Over7c1,501$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,401.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+653.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9647…4d48backed Under43c1,446$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-62.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under61c1,300$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7937565.3%49 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Over40c1,275$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.927955.9%156 W · 123 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over26c1,249$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.0112020.8%25 W · 95 L-9.0wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-39.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b09…2c43backed Under41c1,208$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.481947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+31.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed Over59c1,023$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.6119235.9%69 W · 123 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Over39c999.91$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.9445936.2%166 W · 293 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe19a…abafbacked Under61c983$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.633641.7%15 W · 21 L-6.3wins-0.18per pick59cpaid-27%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x5a48…e094backed Over40c750$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4501100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35d3…e506backed Over40c750$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45035428.5%101 W · 253 L-20.1wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd411…7a18backed Over26c750$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.51323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d7…715dbacked Over40c708.3$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.98475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+80%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x274b…d408backed Over31c700$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4836445.3%29 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c16…a5e3backed Over60c688.03$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.217245.8%33 W · 39 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Under61c674.26$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.3430149.5%149 W · 152 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdda3…b20cbacked Over40c588.25$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.953941%16 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2c8…d506backed Over40c560$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336977.8%7 W · 2 L+3.3wins+0.37per pick41cpaid+108.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Over39c556.61$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.61,24042.2%523 W · 717 L-29.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47f9…4731backed Over27c549.98$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.492334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30052454.2%284 W · 240 L+14.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Under60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30026651.1%136 W · 130 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71c0…13b5backed Under61c496.86$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.08862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+26.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x237e…a5f0backed Over41c487.8$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.84020%8 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under27c439.96$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.6361143.7%267 W · 344 L+0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8bf…345abacked Under61c400$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2447833.3%26 W · 52 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb263…6275backed Under43c399.88$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.953844.7%17 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under46c365.29$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.462,21249.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L-9.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b1f…f549backed Under76c329.33$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.291850%9 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over63c300$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.3722458.9%132 W · 92 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over40c300$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18037342.6%159 W · 214 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bcb…5731backed Under60c300$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+68.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d34…3406backed Under61c278.69$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1702040%8 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd066…9eecbacked Over40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15012945.7%59 W · 70 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over39c250$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.596443.7%421 W · 543 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over40c239.95$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.9775850%379 W · 379 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8193…8c82backed Over60c236.92$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.921442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over39c236.57$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.311,24449.4%615 W · 629 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x576c…f218backed Under60c222.88$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.7320763.8%132 W · 75 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over23c217.39$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.3928633.9%97 W · 189 L+19.7wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+22%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over40c209.77$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.371,63652.9%866 W · 770 L+32.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b0…f879backed Under43c203.6$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.552733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-26.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b47…3f2ebacked Over60c190$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763956.4%22 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa10b…9885backed Over40c170.25$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32e0…a295backed Over59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.492281.8%18 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick72cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8e3…68c1backed Under61c165.18$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.761723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1edf…2392backed Under59c164.15$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.855135.3%18 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7123…59b9backed Under61c163.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.6wins-0.28per pick51cpaid-46.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbf09…0bbbbacked Over40c163$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under63c158.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010850.9%55 W · 53 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid+10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfddd…e369backed Over41c153$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under46c148$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7111753%62 W · 55 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x769d…827bbacked Over41c146$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Over39c145$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.4585748.5%416 W · 441 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a67…af26backed Under70c142.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006266.1%41 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd9…51d0backed Over39c135.9$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.99946.5%46 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+21.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc1ea…acccbacked Over40c130.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaaa…a1a1backed Over40c125$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under66c124.17$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.391,40944.5%627 W · 782 L-6.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbedc…aa38backed Over40c122$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f74…97b6backed Over40c120$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721910.5%2 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-60.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1703…1ab4backed Over60c116.67$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.672437.5%9 W · 15 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-33.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x92df…1e90backed Over40c114$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ae3…af5dbacked Over59c113.97$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.731258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Under60c112.08$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7539052.6%205 W · 185 L+19.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Over60c103.37$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3535347.6%168 W · 185 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x62e3…5630backed Over40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f84…67efbacked Over24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7619128.8%55 W · 136 L-0.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dbe…b1b1backed Under61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6112250%61 W · 61 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e1c…a9a5backed Over35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659940.4%40 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Under61c98.19$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.936554.5%199 W · 166 L+13.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbaa5…3be4backed Over40c90.5$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.33259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+50.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under22c83.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7241343.3%179 W · 234 L-2.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x04b7…7491backed Over39c82$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.023342.4%14 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-16.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8948…7e5ebacked Under61c81.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503948.7%19 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Under61c81.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5031746.1%146 W · 171 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e72…54f0backed Under61c81.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506762.7%42 W · 25 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4cd4…4788backed Over65c76.15$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.652100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8169…444bbacked Over40c75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda5d…e6e8backed Under60c75$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over44c73.05$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8773458.6%430 W · 304 L+47.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Over31c71.87$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6449753.7%267 W · 230 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x307d…6865backed Under43c70.26$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.213745.9%17 W · 20 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Over32c66.61$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.292245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+30.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb8a…8775backed Under61c65.57$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402965.5%19 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc264…7793backed Under60c64.96$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7d2…3287backed Over37c64$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.326241.9%26 W · 36 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Over39c63.13$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.511,00751.5%519 W · 488 L+4.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9184…6048backed Over40c62.5$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.54955.1%27 W · 22 L-0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.