TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Indiana Hoosiers vs. Kentucky Wildcats

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kentucky Wildcatsof Indiana Hoosiers, Kentucky Wildcats
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,672
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$77,414

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,672 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe90b…5da2backed Indiana Hoosiers9c14,242$1,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,281.7669142.8%296 W · 395 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Kentucky Wildcats60c6,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40022645.6%103 W · 123 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Indiana Hoosiers40c4,876$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,950.41,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Indiana Hoosiers33c2,635$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.892,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc97…58a6backed Kentucky Wildcats55c2,528$1,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,140.25944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Indiana Hoosiers24c2,258$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.152,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Kentucky Wildcats61c1,478$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.972,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Indiana Hoosiers20c1,441$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.815442.9%66 W · 88 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd781…92a0backed Indiana Hoosiers51c1,358$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.3714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.1wins-0.44per pick59cpaid-79.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Indiana Hoosiers61c1,340$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.943,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Indiana Hoosiers43c1,047$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4503016.7%5 W · 25 L-7.2wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-69.3%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Indiana Hoosiers1c1,011$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.743993.3%13 W · 386 L-21.0wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-89.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Indiana Hoosiers41c819$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.151,39144.1%613 W · 778 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28b1…5a3fbacked Indiana Hoosiers48c697.43$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Indiana Hoosiers38c541.3$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.144,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Indiana Hoosiers40c534.8$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.095,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Indiana Hoosiers36c530$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.121,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Kentucky Wildcats60c502.2$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.210447.1%49 W · 55 L-14.7wins-0.14per pick61cpaid-24.8%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Kentucky Wildcats58c445$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.935452.3%185 W · 169 L+17.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x58a0…d7cabacked Indiana Hoosiers44c410.92$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.53834.2%13 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Kentucky Wildcats58c314.29$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.311,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Indiana Hoosiers40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12029444.6%131 W · 163 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Indiana Hoosiers38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1142,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x699d…7b47backed Indiana Hoosiers40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002020%4 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+74.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Indiana Hoosiers39c227$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8352928.4%150 W · 379 L-9.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c86…cd2bbacked Indiana Hoosiers45c222.91$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae9…74acbacked Kentucky Wildcats61c204.91$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.8815939%62 W · 97 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Kentucky Wildcats52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9617051.2%87 W · 83 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Indiana Hoosiers40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801,26043.3%545 W · 715 L+34.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Kentucky Wildcats52c184$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.173,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Indiana Hoosiers40c170$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6882048.2%395 W · 425 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40d2…312fbacked Indiana Hoosiers49c150$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.512254.1%66 W · 56 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4dc…d394backed Kentucky Wildcats59c146$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.867353.4%39 W · 34 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x00fe…eff7backed Kentucky Wildcats63c142$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.547335.6%26 W · 47 L-9.2wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-26%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1ae9…5b36backed Kentucky Wildcats46c140$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755141.2%21 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28a2…91a4backed Kentucky Wildcats43c127$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.438756.3%49 W · 38 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Kentucky Wildcats65c125.77$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.165,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Indiana Hoosiers41c125.28$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8510037%37 W · 63 L-8.6wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Indiana Hoosiers40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5079448.9%388 W · 406 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x258e…d16cbacked Indiana Hoosiers40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Indiana Hoosiers66c121$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.510757.9%62 W · 45 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bf2…24d7backed Indiana Hoosiers43c118.45$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.593429.4%10 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x65fd…5dd3backed Indiana Hoosiers70c114.29$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802040%8 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32d6…844bbacked Kentucky Wildcats54c104$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.847060%42 W · 28 L+6.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x61e0…4b62backed Indiana Hoosiers49c102.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502075%15 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Indiana Hoosiers62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627143.7%31 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4c1f…a9a2backed Indiana Hoosiers53c94.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+86.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ab3…5fa4backed Indiana Hoosiers16c93.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152913.8%4 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-41.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bd9…9ef5backed Kentucky Wildcats60c93.5$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.41346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8e7…2b53backed Indiana Hoosiers32c90.63$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa49…949ebacked Kentucky Wildcats36c80$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.25147.1%24 W · 27 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7483…96a6backed Indiana Hoosiers39c75$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.254456.8%25 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc880…a622backed Kentucky Wildcats40c71$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.66750.7%34 W · 33 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64a3…cc70backed Kentucky Wildcats60c71$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.45764.9%37 W · 20 L+8.1wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+26.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x83c9…bacfbacked Kentucky Wildcats56c68.57$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.862737%10 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Indiana Hoosiers38c67.61$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0112,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64a3…789fbacked Indiana Hoosiers39c64.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Indiana Hoosiers40c62.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259639.6%38 W · 58 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97c3…b479backed Kentucky Wildcats59c58.06$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9912840.6%52 W · 76 L-11.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8d67…cf38backed Kentucky Wildcats61c58$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.624959.2%29 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf0c…2265backed Kentucky Wildcats63c52.38$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.384961.2%30 W · 19 L-0.2wins0.00per pick62cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Indiana Hoosiers37c52.38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3853057.4%304 W · 226 L+33.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Indiana Hoosiers40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019238.5%74 W · 118 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaee…0869backed Indiana Hoosiers40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Indiana Hoosiers40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204318.6%8 W · 35 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-32.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd647…9c8fbacked Indiana Hoosiers41c46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.863050%15 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Indiana Hoosiers41c45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.452,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Indiana Hoosiers58c44.3$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8419641.8%82 W · 114 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62e6…f251backed Indiana Hoosiers46c44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.242958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12af…0730backed Indiana Hoosiers41c44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.042152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf3e…390fbacked Indiana Hoosiers60c42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.23751.4%19 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25c3…eb62backed Indiana Hoosiers46c41$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.864156.1%23 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5253…b898backed Indiana Hoosiers37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.82650%13 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Kentucky Wildcats42c39.16$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8445644.5%203 W · 253 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b73…a19dbacked Indiana Hoosiers59c37$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.832540%10 W · 15 L-4.4wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-29.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0102…9375backed Kentucky Wildcats46c36.59$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+115.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c61…dc3dbacked Indiana Hoosiers43c34.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe829…a4aabacked Indiana Hoosiers59c34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.062157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70af…579ebacked Indiana Hoosiers45c33.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfd…9f5abacked Indiana Hoosiers37c32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.843855.3%21 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfa9…7097backed Indiana Hoosiers65c32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.82657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35af…45bfbacked Indiana Hoosiers65c30.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.9wins-0.41per pick69cpaid-60.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfd17…77fdbacked Indiana Hoosiers64c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.23158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf86a…9ed1backed Indiana Hoosiers65c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.52441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6162…e856backed Indiana Hoosiers60c29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.43363.6%21 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d89…87b0backed Indiana Hoosiers64c29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.51758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cf9…142bbacked Indiana Hoosiers41c29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.893860.5%23 W · 15 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Kentucky Wildcats56c28.5$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.554,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd104…0c60backed Indiana Hoosiers63c28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.642454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9698…de01backed Kentucky Wildcats58c27.59$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.593438.2%13 W · 21 L-6.6wins-0.19per pick58cpaid-34.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1b2a…cde8backed Indiana Hoosiers41c27.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0aae…e845backed Indiana Hoosiers40c27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.84057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bf2…6640backed Indiana Hoosiers64c27$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.282638.5%10 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-26.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x48e2…35c7backed Indiana Hoosiers65c26.15$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-31.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb717…a67fbacked Indiana Hoosiers63c26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.382646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7685…482cbacked Kentucky Wildcats63c21.92$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.112751.9%14 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Kentucky Wildcats57c21.67$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3273549.1%361 W · 374 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1ad…cc15backed Indiana Hoosiers50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19fe…dbd8backed Indiana Hoosiers65c19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.352441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.