TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x64a3…789f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
54
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: NFL, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 53 out of 100; worst Premier League at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2025, EST1861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$175.27
Dolphins vs. Steelersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+61.3%+$15.32
Spread: Steelers (-3.5)backed Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+108.3%+$27.08
Commanders vs. Giantsbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+132.6%+$41.71
Cardinals vs. Texansbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Browns vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+28.2%+$5.64
Bills vs. Patriotsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+87.4%+$28.85
Falcons vs. Buccaneersbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Bengals vs. Billsbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Dolphins vs. Jetsbacked Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+72.4%+$18.1
Cowboys vs. Lionsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+66.7%+$33.33
Giants vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+31.6%+$15.79
Bears vs. Eaglesbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+284.6%+$71.15
Panthers vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+30.7%+$36.88
Falcons vs. Saintsbacked Saints · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Colts vs. Chiefsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+53.8%+$16.15
Spread: Lions (-10.5)backed Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$30
All 18 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 15, 2025, EST1040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-29.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Brentford FC win on 2025-12-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-12-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+132.6%+$33.14
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Manchester City win on 2025-12-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+66.7%+$16.67
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$115
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+44.9%+$13.48
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+57.2%+$31.48
All 10 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 17, 2025, EST966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+21.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 17, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Old Dominion vs. South Floridabacked South Florida · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Troy vs. Jacksonville Statebacked Troy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Spread: Tulane (-9.5)backed Tulane · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+121.3%+$181.88
All 3 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+318.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-12-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+736.7%+$184.17
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$30
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+132.6%+$33.14
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 16, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blackhawks vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+53.8%+$13.46
Senators vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Nov 22, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+143.9%+$86.34
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+134.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Göztepe SK win on 2025-12-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+134.7%+$26.94
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Green vs. Gibson Jr. (Catchweight, Prelims)backed Green · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+59.8%+$35.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Racing Club vs. CA River Plate: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+46.4%+$11.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Johnny Speeds - Map 1 Winnerbacked BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Kentucky Wildcatsbacked Indiana Hoosiers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.