Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: FC Midtjylland (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9314f60a7da656521754cb57cc94a0b292b9894c99a1e33c66e53d74f891d73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nottingham Forest FCof FC Midtjylland, Nottingham Forest FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,493 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc699…7961backed FC Midtjylland | 14c | 3,323$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +65%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed FC Midtjylland | 15c | 2,040$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.6 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed FC Midtjylland | 14c | 1,249$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.81 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed FC Midtjylland | 13c | 1,235$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.6 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc708…95fdbacked FC Midtjylland | 14c | 724.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce27…8a7dbacked FC Midtjylland | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…706cbacked FC Midtjylland | 12c | 235$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed FC Midtjylland | 15c | 203$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccc…dbcdbacked FC Midtjylland | 11c | 202$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed FC Midtjylland | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked FC Midtjylland | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed FC Midtjylland | 13c | 76.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Midtjylland (-1.5)this page
- FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)FC Midtjylland won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)FC Midtjylland won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.