Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fb28c5f41288d8b8cc46fa03317ac52438e2a92f8dc552179a3c698e50aacec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $405,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $405,493 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3541…78debacked Over | 1c | 127,369$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.94 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d2…090fbacked Over | 1c | 53,859$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 4,943$2,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,948.59 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dca…87d0backed Over | 25c | 3,200$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.98 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd35…17debacked Over | 58c | 2,598$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 1c | 2,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Under | 71c | 1,354$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.52 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 25c | 1,250$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.55 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 67c | 806.24$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.74 | 771 | 41.8%322 W · 449 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 30c | 715.29$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.52 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…caeebacked Under | 46c | 700.06$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.03 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 2c | 650$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 797 | 32.2%257 W · 540 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 70c | 621.38$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.41 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 74c | 521$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.46 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90d…cf07backed Over | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 30c | 499.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 30c | 499.96$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 1,026 | 47.4%486 W · 540 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 71c | 427.84$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.52 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 71c | 415.6$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.16 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 47c | 409.49$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.03 | 387 | 53%205 W · 182 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 26c | 395$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 180 | 49.4%89 W · 91 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 28c | 235.76$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.82 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 29c | 228.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.41 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 73c | 219.15$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.94 | 706 | 39.5%279 W · 427 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…829bbacked Under | 71c | 209$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b09…2c43backed Over | 36c | 206.09$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f43…843abacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 36c | 194.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 26c | 192.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Under | 58c | 191.66$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.78 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed Over | 14c | 142.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2d…8668backed Under | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 30c | 120.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 267 | 47.2%126 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Over | 46c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784d…9827backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103c…232bbacked Over | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d13…cd85backed Under | 56c | 83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa396…0019backed Over | 26c | 77.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 77c | 68.77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a4…5e83backed Over | 41c | 67.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 44c | 65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb039…1177backed Under | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…591abacked Over | 42c | 62.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912c…f468backed Over | 40c | 60.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 63c | 54.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…df4abacked Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 47c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…7197backed Over | 35c | 43.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e8…c0e2backed Over | 46c | 41.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed Under | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 45 | 75.6%34 W · 11 L | +7.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 65c | 40.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d54…6c91backed Under | 56c | 35.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe63e…adafbacked Under | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd804…9188backed Under | 50c | 29.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca3…483abacked Under | 71c | 28.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x106e…28e5backed Under | 73c | 21.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x087f…2ebfbacked Under | 77c | 21.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf366…0f2dbacked Under | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 61c | 18.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67f2…c640backed Under | 72c | 15.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 76c | 14.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Midtjylland (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)FC Midtjylland won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)FC Midtjylland won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.