Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8090d925ac722f9e22a15b06f9d63b4804e080b60af21c2a11d320a1c32497a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,859 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 24c | 6,318$1,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.11 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…9b55backed Over | 78c | 4,614$3,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.39 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…ae7bbacked Over | 77c | 4,000$3,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd35…17debacked Over | 78c | 3,833$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.93 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b09…2c43backed Under | 45c | 3,720$1,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,689.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 28c | 2,339$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.03 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 22c | 2,126$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.88 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 54c | 1,774$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.08 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Under | 25c | 1,577$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.75 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 35c | 1,208$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.82 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 73c | 816.88$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.6 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…0d72backed Under | 29c | 785.46$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90d…cf07backed Over | 55c | 499.98$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 56c | 466.19$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.13 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 23c | 426.57$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.42 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…0ad4backed Over | 77c | 325.97$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…20e3backed Under | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x333b…c557backed Under | 23c | 299.97$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 22c | 287.26$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.57 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 25c | 286.3$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.62 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 30c | 273.04$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 21c | 250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 21c | 249.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49a1…41cbbacked Over | 73c | 213.34$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…37d8backed Over | 74c | 184.42$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c6…367dbacked Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0b…0eb7backed Over | 75c | 133.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 56c | 132.4$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.26 | 114 | 43.9%50 W · 64 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Over | 70c | 117$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Over | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 239 | 49.4%118 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784d…9827backed Under | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ac…03e9backed Over | 56c | 95.78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd804…9188backed Under | 29c | 85.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…42d1backed Over | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 73c | 79.39$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 23c | 77.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Over | 77c | 77.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 74c | 67.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d13…cd85backed Under | 36c | 63.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…dd44backed Over | 59c | 59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 19c | 58.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…7857backed Under | 22c | 55.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 61c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x103c…232bbacked Over | 73c | 47.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 70c | 47.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 147 | 67.3%99 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7de…ac07backed Over | 77c | 39.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f9…cec5backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x622e…1a89backed Over | 75c | 34.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…a489backed Over | 56c | 27.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 56c | 26.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 109 | 63.3%69 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed4…f891backed Over | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff0…271bbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 56c | 18.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…c574backed Over | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Midtjylland (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)FC Midtjylland won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)FC Midtjylland won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.