Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b47ae0fc8f5e62a84774367b94a4c3623e9b26e65abd60fb90404a64b4ac0db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Midtjyllandof Nottingham Forest FC, FC Midtjylland
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Midtjylland | 76c | 5,978$4,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,446.22 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Nottingham Forest FC | 19c | 2,698$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…48bebacked Nottingham Forest FC | 42c | 1,510$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Nottingham Forest FC | 18c | 1,215$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.7 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Nottingham Forest FC | 19c | 580$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.17 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 18c | 358.95$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…97b6backed Nottingham Forest FC | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…681cbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 41c | 262.95$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.81 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.37per pick | 50cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…25e3backed Nottingham Forest FC | 21c | 214.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Nottingham Forest FC | 25c | 200.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…bdfbbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 20c | 165$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Nottingham Forest FC | 22c | 155.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 160 | 13.1%21 W · 139 L | -18.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -47%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Nottingham Forest FC | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33c8…68d7backed Nottingham Forest FC | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…075ebacked Nottingham Forest FC | 19c | 147.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e78…ccd1backed Nottingham Forest FC | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +110%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…968cbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e6…3cd2backed Nottingham Forest FC | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…3ec8backed Nottingham Forest FC | 21c | 119.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nottingham Forest FC | 25c | 104.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…df4abacked Nottingham Forest FC | 14c | 89.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed FC Midtjylland | 30c | 78.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Nottingham Forest FC | 19c | 52.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Nottingham Forest FC | 42c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Nottingham Forest FC | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Nottingham Forest FC | 78c | 39.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Nottingham Forest FC | 73c | 38.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed FC Midtjylland | 76c | 32.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 37c | 30.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…7df7backed FC Midtjylland | 61c | 16.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed FC Midtjylland | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)this page
- FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Midtjylland (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)FC Midtjylland won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.