Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5730ef43aab0d8306eaf129e5d876f7e8342fd521bddc70c9285e82607ec296f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Midtjyllandof Nottingham Forest FC, FC Midtjylland
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,759 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Nottingham Forest FC | 7c | 1,430$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Nottingham Forest FC | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ff…79dcbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 38c | 1,044$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked FC Midtjylland | 67c | 1,002$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.77 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Nottingham Forest FC | 7c | 927.38$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…caeebacked FC Midtjylland | 65c | 853$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x103c…232bbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 9c | 833.33$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Nottingham Forest FC | 6c | 277.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Nottingham Forest FC | 8c | 251.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -77%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Nottingham Forest FC | 9c | 214.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 335 | 22.4%75 W · 260 L | -43.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Nottingham Forest FC | 15c | 207$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Nottingham Forest FC | 8c | 154$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c8…68d7backed Nottingham Forest FC | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Nottingham Forest FC | 16c | 109.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 160 | 13.1%21 W · 139 L | -18.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -47%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Nottingham Forest FC | 38c | 42.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed FC Midtjylland | 74c | 39.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)this page
- FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Midtjylland (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)FC Midtjylland won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.