Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb936ff0c9fe6dc615a21f23479109dff4efe45aa03fa4b45cbb08c13daffd331
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x074e…b9d1backed No | 3c | 545.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 24c | 436.42$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 40c | 355.68$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.58 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 67c | 335.16$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.34 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a3…2b91backed Yes | 60c | 256.45$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.49 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 76c | 240.58$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 74c | 158.93$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 147$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.86 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 75c | 132.66$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 75c | 132.64$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 42c | 119.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 67c | 115.11$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 30c | 112.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 107.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.96 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 76c | 107.71$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1704…b0e1backed Yes | 65c | 104.39$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 76c | 95.76$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 71c | 94.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 73c | 85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 64c | 83.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 23c | 79.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 23c | 78.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 46c | 76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 75.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 18c | 74.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 18c | 74.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8baa…d708backed No | 34c | 72.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 66c | 69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c97…013bbacked Yes | 23c | 68.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 46c | 65.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…9a18backed No | 28c | 64.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 44c | 64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 68c | 63.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed No | 28c | 63.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…9bf5backed No | 41c | 62.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 57c | 62.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 77c | 61.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 39c | 61.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 55c | 59.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 31c | 57.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 65c | 57.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 25c | 54.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed Yes | 44c | 52.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 27c | 52.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 29c | 51.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 51.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 23c | 43.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49aa…9bd7backed Yes | 77c | 43.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 70c | 43.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 25c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 57c | 42.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed No | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed No | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 58c | 34.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0366…ec39backed No | 56c | 34.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 73c | 31.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 51c | 27.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…1d5bbacked No | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 58c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed Yes | 59c | 24.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…bcf5backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 70c | 18.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed Yes | 75c | 18.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked Yes | 76c | 18.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed Yes | 76c | 18.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca84…6f8dbacked Yes | 76c | 16.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.