MLB · resolved market
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb93a76bf9a7b9ac5cf3441721c3d88d1be6a56e349e01566d7ffff7b36ffd6ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Piratesof Pirates, Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pirates | 30c | 10,651$3,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,454.84 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf90d…0b4dbacked Diamondbacks | 9c | 10,072$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.95 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a5…9996backed Diamondbacks | 1c | 7,784$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Pirates | 29c | 6,217$1,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,441.53 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Diamondbacks | 23c | 5,422$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,266.21 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Diamondbacks | 70c | 4,335$3,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,019.8 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Diamondbacks | 1c | 4,133$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -55%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pirates | 32c | 3,200$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,180.83 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96fe…ecbfbacked Diamondbacks | 71c | 2,821$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Diamondbacks | 71c | 2,788$1,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,979.42 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa06b…b36ebacked Pirates | 30c | 2,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Pirates | 12c | 2,433$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,133.27 | 959 | 30%288 W · 671 L | -24.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb833…56f2backed Pirates | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.97 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 50cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…c516backed Pirates | 30c | 1,700$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda87…4e9bbacked Pirates | 29c | 1,656$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e0…68a8backed Pirates | 30c | 1,294$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Diamondbacks | 70c | 1,188$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.61 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fd…df8fbacked Diamondbacks | 70c | 1,143$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9f…23f5backed Diamondbacks | 70c | 1,041$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ad…9096backed Pirates | 30c | 1,040$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7700…a997backed Pirates | 30c | 1,010$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…45f6backed Diamondbacks | 70c | 1,009$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x078c…a68abacked Diamondbacks | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6f…3838backed Diamondbacks | 10c | 990$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.34 | 405 | 47.4%192 W · 213 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e9…0b33backed Diamondbacks | 70c | 929$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Diamondbacks | 69c | 900$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeebe…6a3cbacked Diamondbacks | 70c | 857$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Pirates | 50c | 801.07$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.54 | 183 | 49.2%90 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…52cbbacked Diamondbacks | 70c | 780$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.28per pick | 51cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd018…cf6ebacked Diamondbacks | 70c | 771$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 54cpaid | -74%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Diamondbacks | 22c | 757$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.75 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d2…46e6backed Diamondbacks | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b33…391ebacked Diamondbacks | 70c | 720$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Pirates | 29c | 695.1$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.15 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Diamondbacks | 70c | 656$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.2 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Diamondbacks | 15c | 556$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.88 | 179 | 27.9%50 W · 129 L | -15.3wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Diamondbacks | 70c | 539.32$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.52 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Pirates | 19c | 531.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.91 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Pirates | 31c | 500$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Diamondbacks | 10c | 478.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 205 | 23.4%48 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce9…7a2cbacked Pirates | 5c | 400$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 206 | 45.1%93 W · 113 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Pirates | 31c | 358.06$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.06 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Diamondbacks | 53c | 350$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.5 | 424 | 52.1%221 W · 203 L | +15.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Diamondbacks | 71c | 325.35$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 999 | 51%509 W · 490 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Pirates | 80c | 302.06$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Diamondbacks | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Diamondbacks | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…f563backed Pirates | 20c | 271.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.74 | 258 | 35.3%91 W · 167 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Pirates | 28c | 230.39$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.88 | 602 | 49.5%298 W · 304 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed Pirates | 61c | 229.51$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.51 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…c011backed Diamondbacks | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 138 | 48.6%67 W · 71 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9085…436fbacked Pirates | 61c | 164.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Diamondbacks | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,010 | 51.2%517 W · 493 L | +36.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d39fbacked Diamondbacks | 71c | 140.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0229…ea6cbacked Diamondbacks | 64c | 133.66$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.06 | 417 | 47.2%197 W · 220 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…bcb1backed Pirates | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.38 | 223 | 12.1%27 W · 196 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Diamondbacks | 68c | 112.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.83 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed5…e9bfbacked Diamondbacks | 56c | 101.49$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…01dabacked Pirates | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…ae97backed Diamondbacks | 71c | 97.55$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.26 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Diamondbacks | 69c | 93.53$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.54 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Pirates | 24c | 85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 177 | 32.8%58 W · 119 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Diamondbacks | 71c | 80$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Diamondbacks | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…fddebacked Diamondbacks | 70c | 65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1024…8fd1backed Pirates | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Diamondbacks | 72c | 55.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Pirates | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Pirates | 30c | 48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4eebbacked Diamondbacks | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…66afbacked Diamondbacks | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 164 | 72%118 W · 46 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Diamondbacks | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Pirates | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Diamondbacks | 76c | 37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Diamondbacks | 71c | 35.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Diamondbacks | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7400…c5ccbacked Diamondbacks | 41c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…2e8fbacked Diamondbacks | 71c | 33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacdd…4fccbacked Diamondbacks | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3aa…e5febacked Diamondbacks | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Diamondbacks | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.